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Saison cyclonique 2009

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Ils vont effectivement se prendre une de ses douches... :rain:

Actuellement, le NHC a redescendu Rick en catégorie 3. Il avait plutôt bien résisté jusqu'à présent, mais depuis une dizaine d'heures, il s'affaiblit très rapidement. L'œil est partiellement obscurci, bien que le mur de l'oeil garde une convection parfois intense.

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 190834

TCDEP5

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009

200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

AS RICK MOVES THROUGH A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...THE CLOUD

PATTERN HAS DEGRADED FURTHER WITH THE EYE NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCERN

IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT

DRIER AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE WEST INTO THE CIRCULATION.

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE HURRICANE...AND

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

QUADRANT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A GUESS SINCE THE DVORAK

TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN KNOWN TO NOT WORK VERY WELL FOR WEAKENING

TROPICAL CYCLONES. BLENDING THE T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS

FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDED 115 KT AT 0600 UTC AND SINCE THE CLOUD

PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THEN THE ADVISORY

INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RICK LATER TODAY AND SHOULD

PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE. EVEN

THOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR

SO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SO HOSTILE AS TO

WEAKEN RICK BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR OR

OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS

A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC

FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOME MORE AND IS NOW NEAR 305/9. THE

MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A

MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. A

SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP INTO THE

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A DAY OR SO. RICK IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD

INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE FIRST TROUGH. THEN...THE HURRICANE

SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN

INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND

TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL

GUIDANCE SUITE EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN. THE ENVELOPE

OF THIS SUITE IS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TRACK...WHICH IS THE

SOUTHERNMOST MODEL AND THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH IS THE NORTHERNMOST.

THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING

OUTLIER SINCE IT SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION OF RICK OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS.

SINCE RICK COULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT

AND PREDICTED EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT

UNCERTAIN...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN

BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.5N 111.1W 110 KT

12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W 105 KT

24HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 112.1W 100 KT

36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W 90 KT

48HR VT 21/0600Z 22.3N 110.2W 85 KT

72HR VT 22/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W 50 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

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Dans le Pacifique central, c'est Neki que voici, le troisième après Lana et Maka.

Le centre est quelque part vers 9°5N et 159°5 Ouest, au niveau du pseudo œil. Il est organisé comme Rick en son temps, en une bande convective unique. Son intensification est assez lente, mais il est promis à un grand avenir.

Je vous mets la discussion qui est très intéressante je trouve, et dit un peu près tout ce qui peut être dit :

WTPA42 PHFO 191505

TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009

500 AM HST MON OCT 19 2009

THE LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS...CURRENTLY MORE THAN 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU

HAWAII...REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS

MORNING. LARGE SPIRALING CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE FEEDING INTO DEEP

TROPICAL CONVECTION THAT IS CLOSE TO THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER...OR LLCC. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS

DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS TYPE IS LIKELY A RARE

OCCURRENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THESE TYPES OF

SYSTEMS ARE MUCH MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SLOW...BUT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TYPE

OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE ITS POTENTIAL TO

ULTIMATELY BECOME A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

DESPITE THE LARGE SIZE AND IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CONTINUED COOLING OF THE

CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LLCC IN THE

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SATELLITE AGENCIES...PHFO...JTWC

AND SAB...HAD A RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE

LLCC. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS AT 0820 UTC SEEMED TO

INDICATE IT WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT

POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT MOTION

IS 290/12.

THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES ALSO HAD A RANGE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES

BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES. THE LATEST T-NUMBERS RANGED

FROM 1.5 TO 2.5. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0425

UTC INDICATED THERE WERE ALREADY A FEW 35 KT WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF

THE APPARENT LLCC THAT WERE NOT FLAGGED FOR RAIN CONTAMINATION.

BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ALONG WITH THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C IS NOW UPGRADED

TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. IT HAS RECEIVED THE HAWAIIAN NAME

NEKI...WHICH IS NEXT ON THE LIST OF TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES IN OUR

BASIN.

THE LATEST UW/CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS FOR THREE-C

INDICATES 2 KT FROM 37 DEGREES. NEKI IS SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL

RIDGE...AND SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS A RESULT...THE

CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL TRACK FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE

THAT THREE-C WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12

TO 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY

SLOWER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE LATEST TRACK

FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND

CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN...TCON AND GUNA CONSENSUS FORECASTS.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST...NEKI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING

ACROSS MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST

CIRA ANALYSIS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO

REMAIN CLOSE TO 29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UW/CIMSS

INTENSIFICATION FORECAST INDICATES LOW VALUES OF VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NEKI/S TRACK. THEREFORE...THESE CONDITIONS ALL

APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST

INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE ICON...WHICH BRINGS THE

SYSTEM TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS. NEKI MAY

ACTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER...SINCE THE LATEST SHIPS

INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.

THREE-C REMAINS FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY THIS

MORNING. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...ANYONE IN THE

VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND NEEDS TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE

ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES NIKI NEAR THAT ISLAND

WEDNESDAY AS A HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR

THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 9.5N 159.6W 35 KT

12HR VT 20/0000Z 10.5N 161.6W 45 KT

24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.0N 163.9W 55 KT

36HR VT 21/0000Z 13.4N 166.0W 65 KT

48HR VT 21/1200Z 14.8N 168.0W 75 KT

72HR VT 22/1200Z 16.4N 170.5W 90 KT

96HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 173.0W 90 KT

120HR VT 24/1200Z 19.6N 175.3W 90 KT

$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON

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Rick continue à défaillir. L'avion de reco est en route pour voir ce qu'il se passe exactement sous la canopée de cirrus. Affaire à suivre...

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L'avion est dedans. À l'Ouest des îles Socorro (elles sont visibles sur l'image IR, juste au Nord du centre de Rick, perdues en plein Océan), il a trouvé des vents de surfaces de 50 nœuds.

Je place aussi un mot sur Neki. Il parlait d'intensification rapide, et bien qu'il soit encore trop tôt pour conclure, Neki arsouille pas mal.... Là aussi, il y a du potentiel.

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90 noeuds, c'est un beau cat2. Cela démontre aussi la présence du Nino.

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Ceal signifie aussi que le NHC a plutôt bien géré la décadence de Rick jusqu'à présent. L'estimation était de 100 nœuds il y a 3 heures, ce qui semble un peu surévaluer, sans doute était il plus proche de 95 nœuds, mais cela reste une bonne estimation. Je remets une image de nos deux compères, Rick et Neki :

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Avec l'affaiblissement rapide de Rick, et la rectification vers l'Est, la Basse Cali ne risque plus grand chose, et la vigilance à l'ouragan a été levée.

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 192035

TCDEP5

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009

200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT RICK HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 76

KT WAS FOUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHILE THE PEAK SFMR

WIND WAS 68 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT

85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE SOME OF

THE DEEPER CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 50 MI EAST OF THE CENTER. DATA

FROM THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 50-KT AND 34-KT WIND FIELDS

HAVE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AS THE

PREVIOUSLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE INNER CORE BEGINS TO

RELAX.

THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW 15 TO 20 KT

OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RICK. THE SHIPS FORECASTS THIS TO

PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING EVEN

FURTHER. THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL

ENVIRONMENT AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY

WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED

DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 24

HOURS...AND THEN LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS AND LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME.

THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW CONTINUED WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL

AND HWRF HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY OR EVEN SHOW STRENGTHENING ON

DAY 2...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT THAT

RICK WILL BE MOVING INTO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

330/06. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RICK

ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT

RECURVES AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE

SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...

AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.5N 111.7W 85 KT

12HR VT 20/0600Z 19.2N 111.8W 75 KT

24HR VT 20/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W 65 KT

36HR VT 21/0600Z 21.9N 109.9W 55 KT

48HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 108.2W 50 KT

72HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

96HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

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Le CPHC est plus ponctuel que le NHC :whistling:

Bref, juste pour dire qu'ils maintiennent Neki à 35 nœuds. Neki ressemble par certains aspects à Rick, une longue bande incurvée. Que le centre soit exposé n'est pas dans cette situation un vrai problème, car il n'est pas lié à des pressions extérieurs (cisaillement ou intrusion d'air sec), mais à la structure du cyclone. Je trouve que l'approche du CPHC, ne montant que doucement son intensité, est plus pragmatique. Les conditions sont idéales, les modèles s'affolent (un catégorie 3 n'est pas exclu :shifty: ), mais Neki n'a actuellement pas, de par ses caractéristiques intrinsèques (presque subtropical ici dans l'aspect), les capacités à se creuser rapidement. Il est aussi intéressant de noter que Neki pourrait continuer dans le Pacifique Ouest en tant que typhon. :shifty:

Edit : l'image :whistling:

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Une dernière image pour ce soir, où l'on voit Rick à l'agonie, l'anticyclone subtropical et ses petits bancs de stratocumulus, Neki, énorme, ce qui explique en partie sa difficulté à s'organiser, l'équateur météo, qui reste marqué par Rick dans sa portion la plus à l'Est, deux systèmes dépressionnaires très au Nord, au delà de 25°N pour celui à l'Ouest, et au délà de 30°N pour celui à l'Est, et enfin où l'on voit l'océan le plus vaste de cette bonne vielle Terre.

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Neki profite de sa nuit pour nous faire de ses choses :blink:

Formation d'un CDO avec bandes spiralées, avec des températures au sommet qui descendent à -90° Celisus. :w00t:

Il peut nous faire quelque chose de grandiose cet enragé.

Edit :

Du Best Track, pour 1200 UTC, il y a une heure. 55 nœuds, puissante tempête tropicale... Il pourrait devenir ouragan dans la journée si il continue à ce rythme.....

CP, 03, 2009102012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1628W, 55, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 45, 35, 70, 1008, 100, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, NEKI, D,

CP, 03, 2009102012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1628W, 55, 1003, TS, 50, NEQ, 35, 20, 15, 35, 1008, 100, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, NEKI, D,

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-90º ? Pas sûr d'avoir déjà vu ca ! Il est vraimennnnnnnt ... Il est vraiment phénoménaaaal !!!

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Wilma. Il ne faut pas chercher plus loin :whistling:

Cependant, même si pour Wilma, je suis sûr de ce que je dis, avoir une grosse poussé convective qui descend sous les -80° Celsius pour une tempête tropicale ou même pour orage de la ZCIT n'est pas inhabituelle. Après, cela reste surtout liée à des amas de Cb. L'organisation du système déterminera si oui ou non, une telle poussé est exploitable. Pour l'instant, Neki est un peu bloqué. La convection reste intense, mais il manque une ébauche d'œil pour poursuivre l'intensification. Il est pour le moment un peu bloqué.

Pour Rick, une nouvelle reconnaissance a confirmé qu'il tenait des vents à 55 nœuds.

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Désolé d'enchaîner comme cela, mais l'image vient de sortir. Elle met en évidence une tentative d'œil pour Neki, mais avec une très grosse faiblesse de l'ébauche du mur au Sud et l'Ouest.

200910201708f15x85hw03c.jpg

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Pic à 105 noeuds ... Pas mal du tout pour un CPAC ... Didju, j'ai jamais autant suivi des ouragans hors Atlantique moi !

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So amazing !

Neki a reçu un T Dvorak de 5.0 à 1200 UTC, ce qui supporte un passage en catégorie 2 au prochain bulletin. Le plus impressionnant est la convection au Nord. :blink:

On descends sous les -80°, pour un mur de l'œil c'est violent. Si le mur de l'œil se ferme proprement, il va nous péter à la figure ce grand fou. :w00t:

En tous cas, il est le premier ouragan pour le CPac depuis Ioke en 2006.

À noter aussi que Rick fut pour l'instant, à son pic, l'ouragan le plus creux et avec les vents les plus forts des saisons cycloniques 2009 de l'hémisphère Nord, devant le typhon Melor. Il a été redescendu à 50 noeuds lors d'un bulletin intermédiaire.

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Oh bon Dieu, il suffit que je le dise pour qu'il commence à le faire. Il y a 1/2 heures, le mur n'était pas blanc continu avec la coloration Dvorak. Il continue encore un peu à ce rythme, et ce sera le bonheur. Allez Neki, on est tous avec toi.

Je tiens quand même à dire que là, je fais de l'image par image, et donc de l'instantané. Il manque la tendance lourde qui sous tend tout cela, et donc toute interprétation trop optimiste serait largement erroné.

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Je suis à cours de vocabulaire....

Neki, je t'aiiiiiime !!! :wub:

L'image parle d'elle même. Il nous l'a fait. Il est peut être déjà catégorie 3 !!!

Il y a une heure, il a été monté à un catégorie 2 de 90 nœuds par le CPHC, mais il continue de s'améliorer.

WTPA42 PHFO 211448

TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009

500 AM HST WED OCT 21 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION FOR

HURRICANE NEKI OVERNIGHT. FIXES FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB AT 1200

UTC WERE 4.5...4.5 AND 5.0. THE HURRICANE LOOKED EVEN MORE

IMPRESSIVE JUST AFTER 1200 UTC. WE SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90

KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD

WITH 35 KT WINDS EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER OUT ON THE NORTHEAST AND

SOUTHEAST SIDES OF THE STORM. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES

BETWEEN NEKI AND A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE HAVE KEPT THE

ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN OUR FORECAST.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEKI HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND

TAKEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS A

TROUGH ALOFT IS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY CURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH

NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT MORE CONSISTENT THAN 6

HOURS AGO WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING NEKI GRADUALLY RECURVING. WE

HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK FARTHER A BIT FARTHER TO THE

RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK.

NEKI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SST VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 27 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE WITH LITTLE

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS...WEST TO

NORTHWEST SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.

THOSE CHANGES WILL CAUSE NEKI TO STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS.

THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP NEKI FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON

ISLAND TO KEEP TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM REACHING THE ISLAND

BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK TO WARRANT KEEPING THE

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON. OUR FORECAST TRACK HAS

NEKI MOVING THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN

FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND LISIANSKI ISLAND IN 72 HOURS. LARGE

SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY REACH THE MONUMENT AS EARLY AS

THURSDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA AS

EARLY AS TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 17.0N 166.6W 90 KT

12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.2N 167.3W 95 KT

24HR VT 22/1200Z 19.8N 167.9W 95 KT

36HR VT 23/0000Z 21.2N 168.2W 105 KT

48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.4N 168.3W 110 KT

72HR VT 24/1200Z 24.6N 168.5W 100 KT

96HR VT 25/1200Z 27.5N 168.5W 90 KT

120HR VT 26/1200Z 30.0N 167.5W 80 KT

$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON

Edit : erreur d'image :blush:

P.S. : l'ADT(dont le graphique est ci dessous) estime qu'il est catégorie 4 depuis cet instant.... :o Ce n'est pas la réalité, mais c'est significatif...

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Par contre, là je suis en désaccord avec le CPHC. Neki est laissé en catégorie 2 avec des vents de 95 nœuds. À mon avis, les vents sont plutôt soutenus à 105 nœuds, le dernier Dvorak objectif étant de 5.5 et l'œil étant très bien défini malgré des faiblesses persistantes du mur et une dissymétrie du cyclone.

WTPA32 PHFO 211754

TCPCP2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE NEKI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009

800 AM HST WED OCT 21 2009

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL

MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE

WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A TROPICAL

STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN

THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.8 WEST OR ABOUT

630 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 190 MILES

EAST-NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. NEKI IS

FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS IT MAKES A GRADUAL TURN TO

THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS

A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE

IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT

48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255

MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

ANYONE NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND OR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL

MONUMENT SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR NEKI. A TROPICAL

STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA

NATIONAL MONUMENT TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER TODAY. IF NOT...

THE WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND WILL PROBABLY BE CANCELLED. LARGE

SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY REACH THE MONUMENT AS EARLY AS

THURSDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...17.6N 166.8W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE

CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER WROE

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Rick s'est échoué il y a quelques heures maintenant, en tant que tempête tropicale avec des vents de 45 nœuds. Actuellement, il n'est plus qu'une dépression en cours de dissipation. Le prochain bulletin sera sans doute le dernier. Si quelqu'un trouve le centre...

D'après le NHC, il est par 23.9°Nord 105.6°Ouest.

Edit : It's official

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 212031

TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009

200 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2009

THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON RICK.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE

CENTER HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS

SYSTEM. REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD

ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 24.5N 104.5W 30 KT

12HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

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Par contre, là je suis en désaccord avec le CPHC. Neki est laissé en catégorie 2 avec des vents de 95 nœuds. À mon avis, les vents sont plutôt soutenus à 105 nœuds, le dernier Dvorak objectif étant de 5.5 et l'œil étant très bien défini malgré des faiblesses persistantes du mur et une dissymétrie du cyclone.

La dernière valeur officiel est de 100 nœuds. Sans doute une attitude conservatrice vis à vis du dvorak de 5.5.

WTPA32 PHFO 212045

TCPCP2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009

1100 AM HST WED OCT 21 2009

...NEKI STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT

CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH NORTHWESTWARD FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH

FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL

MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT

48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.8 WEST OR ABOUT

620 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 410 MILES

SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL

TURN TO THE NORTH BY 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING

AREA EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS

A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255

MILES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH

OF NEKI.

LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF NEKI ACROSS THE

SMALLER ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT ON THURSDAY...

CREATING SURF OF 20 TO 25 FT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...18.0N 166.8W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC

HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE

ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER WROE

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Neki s'est affaibli rapidement ces dernières heures. On a toujours des poussés convectives de folie, mais l'oeil n'est plus. À noter aussi qu'à son apogée, Neki est monté à 105 nœuds, peut être même 110 nœuds, ce qui le laisse en catégorie 3. Pour un ouragan du CPac c'est une belle performance. Le cisaillement du vent est actuellement en train de l'affecter et de l'affaiblir. Il est le premier ouragan majeur natif du Paficique Central depuis un certain Ioke en 2006.

WTPA42 PHFO 220913

TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009

1100 PM HST WED OCT 21 2009

HURRICANE NEKI HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING. FIXES

FROM PHFO AND JTWC REPORT CI OF 5.5 WHILE SAB REPORTS

6.0...UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. PHFO ALSO REPORTS STEADY FOR A 24

HOUR TREND INSTEAD OF DEVELOPING...A FIRST FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 105 KT AS A NOD TO CONTINUITY

FROM 6 HOURS AGO. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...IF A BIT ASYMMETRIC.

SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS EVIDENT...WITH THE 0600 UTC UW-CIMSS VERTICAL

SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWING 18 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST

ENOUGH SHEAR TO AFFECT THE CORE...WHICH PRESENTS AS A CLOUDED EYE

AT THIS HOUR. NEKI REMAINS OVER 28 DEGREE C WATER...BUT LITTLE OR

NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

NEKI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF ITS

TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT EAST COMPONENT NOTED IN LAST 6 HOUR MOTION.

INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 010 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A FRONT MOVING

SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR LISIANSKI IS ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE...URGING NEKI EVER NORTHWARD. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY

SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE

ENCROACHING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE

FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST

WITHIN THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND ALONG

HWRF...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEKI WILL REMAIN IN 26 C OR WARMER WATER THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN

MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATER THROUGH THE REST OF ITS FORECAST TRACK.

UW-CIMSS SHOWS NEUTRAL SHEAR IMPACT ON THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 24

HOURS...SO NO WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL

WEAKENING IS INTRODUCED AT 24 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING

EXPECTED AFTERWARD. NEKI IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AFTER

72 HOURS...THEN A DEPRESSION AT 120 HOURS. THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY

FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW NEKI INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT

AND UPPER TROUGH.

ON THE CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL BE APPROACHING THE

PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON

FRIDAY...AND A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE MONUMENT FROM NIHOA

ISLAND TO MARO REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM

MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED WITH THE

NEXT BULLETIN IF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN THE TRACK INCREASES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL

DETERIORATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THURSDAY...WITH

SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT AND SURF UP 25 FT EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 19.7N 166.5W 105 KT

12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 166.2W 105 KT

24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.7N 165.8W 100 KT

36HR VT 23/1800Z 24.3N 165.1W 90 KT

48HR VT 24/0600Z 25.8N 164.2W 80 KT

72HR VT 25/0600Z 28.7N 162.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 26/0600Z 31.8N 159.7W 50 KT

120HR VT 27/0600Z 35.6N 157.2W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER POWELL

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Neki a été redescendu à 100 nœuds, borne inférieur de la catégorie 3. L'œil est complètement obscurci actuellement, mais la convection reste intense.

WTPA42 PHFO 221450

TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009

500 AM HST THU OCT 22 2009

HURRICANE NEKI REACHED PEAK INTENSITY LAST NIGHT AND HAS BEGUN TO

WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH ONLY EVER SO SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING. FIXES FROM

PHFO AND JTWC GAVE CI VALUES OF 5.5 AND 5.0 WHILE SAB GAVE

6.0...WITH JTWC REPORTING THE INTENSITY DROP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUED CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND A BIT OF

EROSION INTO THE EYEWALL ALONG ITS SOUTHEAST FLANK. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN PHFO AND JTWC

INTENSITIES. OUTFLOW HAS BECOME HAMPERED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST

FLANK...BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS

INCREASING...WITH THE 1200 UTC UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT NOW

SHOWING OVER 25 KT OF SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO

AFFECT THE CORE. NEKI REMAINS OVER 28 DEGREE C WATER...BUT THANKS

TO THE SHEAR GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF NEKI IS

OFF THE WESTERN LIMB OF THE CLOSEST SCATTEROMETER PASS...BUT IT

SEEMS CLEAR THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADIUS IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN IT

WAS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS

RADIUS HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO 180 NM FOR THIS BULLETIN CYCLE.

NEKI ALSO REACHED THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF ITS TRACK LAST

NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED EAST COMPONENT NOTED IN LAST

6 HOUR MOTION. INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 020 DEGREES AT 9 KT. A FRONT

MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR LISIANSKI IS ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE...URGING NEKI TO GAIN LATITUDE. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY

SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE

ENCROACHING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TRACK

GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE RECURVATURE OF NEKI

THIS TIME AROUND...WITH ALL BUT BAMD IGNORING THE PAST 6 AND 12

HOURS MOTION AND WANTING TO KEEP MOVING NEKI DUE NORTH...AT LEAST

INITIALLY. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS BAMD THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN

EASES INTO AN ARC PARALLEL TO AND JUST RIGHT OF GFDL AND HWRF. THE

FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE ALSO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE

PREVIOUS ONE.

NEKI WILL REMAIN IN 26 C OR WARMER WATER THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN

MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATER THROUGH THE REST OF ITS FORECAST TRACK.

HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS NOW SHOWS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR IMPACT ON THIS

SYSTEM THROUGH 24 HOURS. NEKI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL

STORM AFTER 72 HOURS...THEN TO A DEPRESSION AT 120 HOURS. THE LONG

RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW NEKI INTERACTS

WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL BE APPROACHING THE

PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

AND NIHOA ON FRIDAY...AND A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE

MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO MARO REEF. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH

FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LARGE SWELLS FROM

THE SOUTH WILL BUILD AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY...WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT

AND SURF UP 25 FT EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 20.4N 166.0W 100 KT

12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 165.5W 100 KT

24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.4N 164.8W 95 KT

36HR VT 24/0000Z 24.9N 163.9W 85 KT

48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.4N 162.7W 75 KT

72HR VT 25/1200Z 29.3N 160.4W 65 KT

96HR VT 26/1200Z 32.7N 157.3W 50 KT

120HR VT 27/1200Z 36.4N 153.4W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER POWELL

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Première image visible. Neki reste un ouragan de catégorie 2 d'après les dernières estimations. L'effet du cisaillement de vent est tout à fait évident, avec une convection déportée vers le Nord Est.

Il est en train de passer au dessus de papahanaumokuakea dont le nom imprononçable se prononce comme suit : http://papahanaumokuakea.gov/about/PMNM_Pronounce.MP3 http://papahanaumokuakea.gov/about/PMNM_Meaning.MP3

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C'est bizarre, le NHC la voit dégénérer en TS, TD, puis L, et puis régénérer en TD en se déplaçant vers le Nord ...

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Transition extratropicale.... Mais ils n'ont de symbole pour une XT, alors il le note TD. C'est rarissime pour le Pacifique Central, car ils ont peu de cyclones, et donc encore moins qui partent vers le Nord.

Le centre est maintenant exposé, la convection est repoussée au Nord Est par le cisaillement. Neki n'est plus qu'une tempête tropicale maintenant.

WTPA42 PHFO 231506

TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009

500 AM HST FRI OCT 23 2009

NEKI HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. OVER THE

PAST 6 HOURS IN PARTICULAR...NEKI HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN DEEP

CONVECTION AND AT 430 AM HST ITS ARGUABLE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.

AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 3.5 3.5 AND 2.5 FROM PHFO SAB AND

PGTW RESPECTIVELY...THE LATTER BREAKING CONSTRAINTS. COMBINED WITH

THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...SEE NO REASON TO MAINTAIN

HURRICANE STRENGTH AND HAVE DOWNGRADED NEKI TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE

RAPID WEAKENING ALSO PRESENTS A CHALLENGE ON THE CENTER POSITION.

BELIEVE WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION EXISTS IS BEING SHEARED CONSIDERABLY

TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO RELIED ON LIMITED MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND

SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE 1200 UTC POSITION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BETTER REFLECT THE SLOW DOWN OF

NEKI OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK

WAS PULLED BACK EVEN FURTHER FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THROUGH 48

HOURS...EXPECT LESS THAN 10 KT OF FORWARD MOTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT

ENVIRONMENTAL PUSH. AFTER 48 HOURS...A WEAKENED NEKI WILL PICK UP

SOME SPEED AS IT STARTS TO BE ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE LATEST

FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CENTER DOWN THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND HWRF.

SHIPS CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES IN THE COMING DAYS. THE CURRENT SHEAR IS REALLY BEATING

NEKI DOWN. HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTENSITY ACROSS THE

BOARD...MAKING NEKI A REMNANT LOW AT 72 HOURS.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE

PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN MARO REEF AND NIHOA

TODAY. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO

MARO REEF IS CANCELLED AND REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR

THE SAME AREA. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT

PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 20 FT AND

SURF UP TO 25 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO BATTER ISLANDS IN THE WARNING

AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. SEAS AND SURF WILL

BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS NEKI WEAKENS FURTHER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.8N 165.6W 60 KT

12HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 165.4W 55 KT

24HR VT 24/1200Z 24.9N 164.9W 45 KT

36HR VT 25/0000Z 26.2N 164.0W 40 KT

48HR VT 25/1200Z 27.4N 162.9W 30 KT

72HR VT 26/1200Z 30.5N 160.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 27/1200Z 36.6N 156.9W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

$$

FORECASTER TANABE

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