Saison 2010 : Ouragans, cyclones, typhons, tempêtes et dépressions

[paix 0]

Red code, with a 60% chance (risk ?) of 92L becoming a tropical storm. I think it's a little high percentage, 92L needs more concentred thunderstorm. But, no doubtful, it's a very good looking invest, with an impressive organisation.

Just behind, the future has joined the ocean

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST

OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG

WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO

BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT

MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS

A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

NNNN

[ElNino27 0]

C'est vrai que ça bande bien ... si j'ose dire

[ElNino27 0]

Joe Bastardi parle du bazar :

http://www.accuweather.com/video/950328690...re-bubbling.asp

[paix 0]

C'est vrai que ça bande bien ... si j'ose dire

:lol2:

Maintenu à 60% à 6UTC :

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST

OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN

CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT

MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE

REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

NNNN

L'avis de Jeff Masters ( http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html ) :

First tropical depression of the season may form from 92L

Mise à jour: 15:40 GMT le 13 juin 2010

An unusually large and well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season has developed midway between the coast of Africa and South America. The storm was designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season. Surface winds measured by the 8:23am EDT pass of the European ASCAT satellite revealed that 92L already has a closed surface circulation, though the circulation is large and elongated. Top winds seen by ASCAT were about 25 mph. METEOSAT visible satellite loops show a large and impressive circulation that is steadily consolidating, with spiral bands building inward towards center, and upper-level outflow beginning to be established to the northwest and north.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Climatology argues against development of 92L, since only one named storm has ever formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the month of June--Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 (Figure 2). However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) underneath 92L are an extremely high 28 - 30°C, which is warmer than the temperatures reached during the peak of hurricane season last year, in August - September. In fact, with summer not even here, and three more months of heating remaining until we reach peak SSTs in the Atlantic, ocean temperatures across the entire Caribbean and waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are about the same as they were during the peak week for water temperatures in 2009 (mid-September.) While 92L will cross over a 1°C cooler patch of water on Monday, the storm will encounter very warm SSTs of 28-29°C again by Tuesday.

The disturbance doesn't have to worry about dry air--Total Precipitable Water (TPW) loops show a very moist plume of air accompanies 92L, and water vapor satellite loops show that the center of 92L is at least 300 - 400 miles from any substantial areas of dry air. The 60-day cycle of enhanced thunderstorm activity called the Madden-Jullian Oscillation is currently favoring upward motion over eastern tropical Atlantic, and this enhanced upward motion helps create stronger updrafts and higher chances of tropical cyclone development.

Figure 2. Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 was the only June named storm on record to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The forecast for 92L

A major issue for 92L, like it is for most June disturbances, is wind shear. The subtropical jet stream has a branch flowing through the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic north of 10° N that is bringing 20 - 40 knots of wind shear to the region. Our disturbance is currently located at 7°N, well south of this band of high shear, and is only experiencing 5 - 15 knots of shear. This moderate amount of shear should allow for some steady development of 92L over the next few days as it tracks west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Based on visible satellite imagery over the past few hours, I believe this forecast is not aggressive enough, and that 92L has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Another factor holding 92L back is its proximity to the Equator. I would give 92L higher chances of developing if it were not so close to the Equator. The system is organizing at about 7°N latitude, which is so close to the Equator that it cannot leverage the Earth's spin much to help it get spinning. It is quite unusual for a tropical depression to form south of 8°N latitude.

The farther south 92L stays, the better chance it has at survival. With the system's steady west-northwest movement this week, 92L should begin encountering hostile wind shear in excess of 30 knots by Thursday, which should be able to greatly weaken or entirely destroy the storm before it gets to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, residents of the islands--particularly the northern Lesser Antilles--should follow the progress of 92L closely, and anticipate heavy rains and high winds moving through the islands by Saturday or Sunday next weekend. The GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that 92L will develop into a moderate strength tropical storm that will then be weakened or destroyed by the end of the week, before it reaches the islands. This looks like a reasonable forecast.

Figure 3. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for June 10, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Oil spill wind forecast

There is little change to the oil spill wind forecast for the coming two weeks. Light winds of 5 - 10 knots mostly out of the south or southeast will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the coast of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

Jeff Masters

Une petite image satellite (heu grande, mais il est tellement au Sud Est que je trouve le floater du NHC mal foutu) :

Et mon avis, qui ne sera pas très différente de tout ce qui vient d'être. La convection semble s'allumer près du centre, ce qui est un point positif. La rotation du système est évident, avec un centre cyclonique de niveau moyen. Par contre, en surface, le centre est fermé mais reste allongé et assez mal défini. Les vents de surfaces ne sont pas très élevés non plus (25 nœuds au maximum). Si la convection se développe et se maintient, je pense qu'un passage en dépression tropicale est possible à 12 UTC avec la sortie des images visibles. Mais je reste sur la même opinion, qui est de dire que 92L manque d'une forte convection concentrée au centre pour l'instant. De plus, sa position très au Sud nuit au développement de 92L, de part le fait que l'onde reste prise dans l'équateur météo et que la force de Coriolis n'est plus très efficace à ces latitudes.

Modifié 14 juin 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

La convection semble bien s\'établir, et un CDO est en cours de formation. Si la tendance persiste, un passage en dépression tropicale est possible à 12UTC, avec 25 ou 30 nœuds de vents. Perso, je dirais plutôt 25 nœuds. Il faudra voir également l\'évolution des T-numbers. Le dernier date de 5Z45, à 1.0. Si ils sont en hausse, l\'upgrade est probable. Actuellement, 92L a une bonne circulation cyclonique, avec une convection en reprise qui s\'affiche avec des températures de -75° au sommets des CBs, pas si mal tout de même. Au vu des images actuelles, la poussé convective la plus forte semble un peu excentrée, mais cela n\'est pas non plus un problème. Le NHC préféra peut être cependant attendre que la journée passe, et voir si 92L résiste au réchauffement des sommets de nuages diurnes, en augmentant simplement la probabilité de développement.

Pour l\'onde qui suit derrière, un passage en invest, code jaune est possible à la prochaine mise à jour, à 12 UTC.

Le cisaillement du vent est un peu élevé, 5 à 15 nœuds, mais ce n\'est pas rédhibitoire. Les eaux sont un peu fraîches du à sa position à l\'extrème Est de l\'Atlantique, mais reste au dessus du seuil des 26°. Elle présente de plus une vigoureuse convection. Cependant, aucun modèle, même ceux spécialisés dans le développement cyclonique, ne voit encore quelque chose.

Modifié 14 juin 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

P.S. : Pour 92L

ASCAT vient de nous faire un passage, et confirme la formation d'un faible LLC, mais déplacé par rapport au maximum de convection, avec des vents plafonnant à 20 nœuds, peut être 25 nœuds. Cependant, les vents les plus forts semblent liés au maximum de convection et non au creusement dépressionnaire. Bref, rien n'est encore acquis pour l'instant.

[paix 0]

P.S. : Pour le futur invest

000

FXCA62 TJSJ 140940

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

540 AM AST MON JUN 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN EAST-WEST TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF

PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL PASS OVER WEDNESDAY

NIGHT AND THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE NOSES IN FROM

THE EAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AFTER WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST

UNITED STATES TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH

PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO SUNDAY

AND MONDAY BUT STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF AFRICA

AROUND 22 NORTH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS

BETWEEN 20 AND 35 NORTH FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SEVERAL BANDS OF

MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE DUE TO ARRIVE

ON SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 40 WEST THIS

MORNING. A SECOND WAVE IS LEAVING AFRICA NOW AND WILL MOVE THROUGH

THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER SHOWS A CONTINUING PATTERN OF MODERATE

EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND WIDE BANDS OF BETTER MOISTURE

CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO

RICO AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS AND

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST DURING THE

AFTERNOONS. LATEST MODELS SHOW MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY THE

PRECIPITABLE WATER...INCREASING MORE OR LESS STEADILY BETWEEN

TODAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES TO OVER 2.3 INCHES.

DURING THIS TIME A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MID WEEK...A

SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED

FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON

SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING WITH IT CONSIDERABLY MORE SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT...MORE IMPORTANTLY...NOW APPEARS TO

REPRESENT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT

LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. A THIRD WAVE...CURRENTLY LEAVING AFRICA WILL

BE POISED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO NOT

DEVELOP THE WAVE APPROACHING 40 WEST LONGITUDE INTO A TROPICAL

CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ROTATION VISIBLE

AROUND ITS CENTER AND WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE SPIRAL BANDS. IN

ADDITION TO THIS VISIBLE STRUCTURE THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR AND

FAVORABLE OCEAN WARMTH TO INDUCE GROWTH. WHETHER IT CAN SURVIVE A

TRANSITION OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS IT

APPROACHES IS OF NO LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AND AT THIS TIME WOULD TEND

TO GO WITH THE MODELS AND MERELY INDICATE A WET WEEKEND FOR PUERTO

RICO AND PERHAPS SOME RAINS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS

AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS

THAT ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE COULD HAVE PARTICULARLY GUSTY WINDS.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL

CONTINUE TO PLACE THE REGION AT RISK FOR LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL

STREAM FLOODING. CURRENTLY MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK

MOST FAVORABLE FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF

SITES. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE

FLIGHT AREA ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME

THROUGH 14/12Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 14/18-22Z... EXPECT

PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. IN

ADDITION...MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF

PR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. LATEST 14/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED

EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SFC UP TO 15K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS

WEEK. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW 7 FEET IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR

ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER 19/00Z...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THIS TO

THE GRIDS UNTIL WINDS ARE MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 80 90 79 / 10 30 30 30

STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...NONE.

VI...NONE.

&&

$$

11/12

J'avais zappé, c'est sorti il y a 1/2 heure.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

[paix 0]

Logiquement, le NHC temporise est maintient à 12Z 92L en tant qu'invest ayant 60% de chances de se développer :

000

ABNT20 KNHC 141148

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST

OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR

DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE

REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[ElNino27 0]

Ben oui ... 48h, c'est quand même 2 jours (Sisi, j'vous jure). Donc, faut pas s'attendre obligatoirement à une formation là aujourd'hui. Faut quand même pas oublier qu'il y a 40% de chances que ce bazar se forme après 48h ou même pas du tout !

[paix 0]

????????????????

Sinon, le NHC a redescendu la proba de développement de 92L. L'onde a semblé s'organiser, mais en rélaité le LLC a toujours été déplacé par rapport au maximum de convection. les dernières images montrent même un système csaillé. Bref, ce n'est pas pour aujourd'hui le début de saison.

000

ABNT20 KNHC 141739

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME

LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY

CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS

FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48

HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15

MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[paix 0]

Dans le Pacifique Est, cela bouge aussi :

000

ABPZ20 KNHC 141745

TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE

BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS

WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF

THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF

OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IS MOVING LITTLE.

DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER

THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[paix 0]

Et 92L est toujours là. Je ne sais trop quoi en penser. Pour paraphraser EL Nino, cela bande dur...

Mais je ne sais pas si le NHC va pour autant l'upgrader en dépression tropicale, du au fait que la persistance est souvent la clef, et que la persistance semble ne pas être à l'ordre du jour. En tous cas, elle a toujours une proba de développement de 50%.

On verra bien ce que dit le NHC à 12Z, mais je serais bien en peine de dire ce qui pourra se passer.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN

MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION TODAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON

WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

NNNN

Modifié 15 juin 2010 par paix

[virtualife 0]

Une petite carte avec les probabilites, c'est plus...visuel.

[paix 0]

Cette carte est générée automatiquement à partir d'un modèle, et doit donc être pris avec des pincettes.

Comme dirait les anglais (je ne retrouve pas le mot français :lol2: ), ce n'est qu'une guidance.

Actuellement, 92L dans l'Atlantique a autant ou même plus de chance de se développer que 92E dans le Pacifique. Il est important de noter que 92L a déjà des caractéristiques d'une dépression tropicale ( particulièrement le LLC), mais que la question est de savoir si oui ou non le NHC va la monter en dépression tropicale, donnant le fait que cette évolution est sans doute transitoire.

[paix 0]

Voïd of any deep convection. La persistance de la tentative d'allumage de cette matinée n'aura pas tenue, redescendu à 30% de chance de se développer. 92L a tout de même une bonne organisation, mais cela ne sera pas suffisant.

[paix 0]

Grosse poussée convective pour 92E, mais il manque toujours une organisation décente et une rotation cyclonique. Un passage en code rouge est cependant possible à mon avis. Il est au Sud d'une zone de fort cisaillement, entre l'anticyclone avec ses jolis stratocumulus et une inversion de subsidence, et les vents à 200/300 hPa, qui son le fruit de la divergence de l'équateur météo. Pour le fun, un petit passage nuageux d'altitude, au alentour de 500 hPa, dans le flux d'air à cette altitude. Vu la qualité de la tof', j'ai un doute quand à savoir de quel espèce de nuages il s'agit, sans doute altostratus. La trajectoire de 92E sera donc déterminante. Si il part trop au Nord Ouest, il va se manger du cisaillement de vent à mettre en pièce tous ce qui ressemble à de la convection profonde. Le cisaillement devrait cependant s'affaiblir d'ici 2 jours, lui laissant de l'espace pour un éventuel développement.

Modifié 15 juin 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

Un jour, faudra que le NHC m'explique comment ils font pour les upgrades et downgrades.

C'est une certitude, 92L est une dépression tropicale, mais il justifie la baisse de la probabilité de formation en expliquant que les conditions vont devenir mauvaises...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

HAS INCREASED TONIGHT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF

THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS

IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

NNNN

Il y a un LLC, avec une poussée convective stable qui le couvre. Du au cisaillement de vent assez fort, la convection est quelque peu déplacée, mais quand on voit la tronche qu'avaient Danny ou Henry l'année dernière, 92L se porte mieux que.

De plus, le T-number est monté à 1.5, ce qui justifie une TD à 25 nœuds.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L

Le dernier passage du SSMIS montre une organisation un peu précaire, et une forte poussée convective quelque peu déplacée, mais avec toujours ce LLC bien défini aux alentours de 50°O et 14°N.

Je rajouterais le cisaillement de vent, élevé avec 15 à 25 nœuds, mais non rédhibitoire.

Enfin, l'apothéose avec l'image visible

Si le NHC ne la monte pas en TD1 à 12Z, je ne saurais plus quoi dire

Modifié 16 juin 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

Deux bouées qui vont devenir intéressantes d'ici demain :

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41nt0

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[paix 0]

D'accord, je vais me coucher ...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES. HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT

FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO

NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

NNNN

P.S. : Maintenu à T 1.5 ...

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

16/1145 UTC 14.6N 50.5W T1.5/1.5 92L

16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L

Modifié 16 juin 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

El Nino vient de me faire découvrir Joe Bastardi, et je le trouve déjà sympathique

I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?

Il n'y va pas avec le dos de la cuillère, mais c'est vraiment n'importe quoi l'absence d'upgrade. Il y avait tout, la convergence, les orages tropicaux, le LLC pris dans le CDO, la persistance. Il va falloir que le NHC trouve une autre justification que le simple fait que les conditions étaient défavorables....

[paix 0]

Dans le Pacifique, 93E vient de passer en code rouge :

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC

CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT

DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE

POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF

TEHUANTEPEC WEST TO ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

2. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF

MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM FROM THIS

SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

NNNN

La convection est bien établi, et semble résisté au cycle diurne pour l'instant, avec des sommets de nuages à 80° ponctuellement, et des poussées convectives qui dépassent le CDO. Par contre, la circulation est mal définie encore, visible sur la photo satellite de la brigthness temperature qui montre un amas convectif avec ébauche de rotation, mais sans que l'on puisse parler de circulation close. Ceci est confirmé par un passage de l'ASCAT plus récent. Si la couverture est mauvais (QuickScat, tu nous manques ), on a sans doute un centre ouvert, ou alors fermé mais allongé et mal défini.

En tous cas, le LLC est sous le CDO. Si les choses continuent à se rythme, on pourrait avoir une dépression tropicale dans la soirée. Il a devant lui un champ de faible cisaillement de vent, ce qui lui laisserait de l'espace pour se développer. La proximité avec les côtés pourrait cependant avoir un impact négatif. De plus, la côte mexicaine risque de se prendre une bonne douche.

Il a de plus reçu un T 1.0 tout à l'heure :

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

16/1145 UTC 14.7N 96.1W T1.0/1.0 93E

P.S. : Pour ce qui ne sauraient pas -> LLC, low level center, centre de bas niveau, qui implique une circulation cyclonique et un peu près symétrique. Et CDO, central dense overcast, qui implique la fusion de l'ensemble des sommets des cumulonimbus en une canopée de cirrus.

Modifié 16 juin 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

Ok, ils viennent de le faire :

000

WTPZ22 KNHC 161523

TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010

1530 UTC WED JUN 16 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE

SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE

CHACAHUA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE

CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA

MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 16/1530Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 16/1530Z

AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 96.2W

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.2N 98.0W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 99.3W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 95.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

La définition du LLC est un peu limite, mais il n'y a pas à dire, c'est sans doute un beau spécimen en gestation.

[paix 0]

000

WTPZ42 KNHC 161538

TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010

830 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1209 UTC

INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE

CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 12-18 HOURS...THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION OF

T1.5 AND AN IMPROVED DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES ARE

BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON-LIKE ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED

BY A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND A EASTERLY

FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN YIELDS A SLOW DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW... AND

HELPS TO EXPLAIN WHY THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE. THIS IS BORNE

OUT IN RECENT CENTER FIXES WHICH GIVE LITTLE MOTION...AND THE

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA

INTO THE WESTERN GULF BUILDING WESTWARD WHICH SHOULD STEER THE

DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW

CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION WITH A

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST.

THE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO

MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE

SHEAR IS LIGHT. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE

STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LOWER

LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1530Z 14.8N 95.6W 25 KT

12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.8N 96.2W 30 KT

24HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 30 KT

36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.2N 98.0W 35 KT

48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 99.3W 40 KT

72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W 45 KT

96HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W 45 KT

120HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W 45 KT

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[ElNino27 0]

Un beau système de 45 noeuds à 5 jours, bof ...

Faut faire attention avec le Basstardi, c'est l'américain moyen de droite qui critique tout ce qui appartient à l'Etat. Il est en concurrence avec le NHC, alors faut pas s'étonner de le voir déblatérer ainsi.

[paix 0]

Merci pour l'info

Mais je maintiens qu'on a atteint l'apothéose du n'importe quoi avec 92L. Il était une dépression tropicale ce matin, j'en parierais tout ce que je peux et même plus si il le fallait.

Maintenant, le cisaillement du vent l'a mis a mal, mais il reste sans doute un LLC, qui souffre bien cependant. Et même là, le garder en code jaune est franchement limite. Apparemment, il y a toujours un LLC et la convection flanche un peu, mais la convergence elle s'est amélioré. Je me doute qu'on est là, le derrière sur nos chaises à râler, et sans aucune responsabilité. Le NHC a de très lourdes responsabilités, mais ce serait sympa si cela n'entravaient pas leur action scientifique non plus.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES. HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT

FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO

NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

NNNN