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Saison 2010 : Ouragans, cyclones, typhons, tempêtes et dépressions

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Faut faire attention à Lisa ... Déjà que Julia nous a joué un sale tour ... Le NHC entrevoit pour la première fois un ouragan et une direction Ouest.

Maintenant, c'est certain que 95L a l'air bcp plus intéressant ... Un petit Matthew, et une petite Nicole dans quelques jours pour terminer la fête de septembre. Je me demande comment octobre va scorer ...

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95L est passé à 60%. Cela se précise !

Le destin de Lisa = Péricliter ?

Dans le Pacifique Est, Georgette s'achève sur le Mexique.

Et dans le Pacifique central, il y a une proba de 60% de voir un cyclone tropical apparaître dans les 48h... Je ne sais pas à quand remonte le dernier dans cette zone ?

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95L se précise ... et pourrait bien remonter vers la Floride. C'est chaud sur Stork2k !!! :whistling:

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95L se précise ... et pourrait bien remonter vers la Floride. C'est chaud sur Stork2k !!! :whistling:

95L est devenu Dépression n°15. On dirait ce soir que c'est encore l'est de la péninsule du Yucatan qui pourrait se prendre un ouragan en pleine face... Ensuite, on dirait que cela repart vers le nord (Traverser le golfe du Mexique pour frapper les USA?)

De son côté, le destin de Lisa devrait se préciser mardi prochain par une disparition...

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Lisa risque de disparaître plus vite que cela, à mon avis ... :whistling:

Mais effectivement, 95L/TD15/Matthew devrait hérisser les cheveux des Cubains et des Floridiens. Et aussi ceux du NHC parce que la trajectoire risque d'être folle !

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Matthew, Mitch ?

Après, je dis ça, je dis rien :whistling:

Plus sérieusement, le futur Matthew s'est sensiblement améliorer durant la journée. L'image satellite montre un système solidement organisé, même si la convection manque un peu d'uniformité et de force.

Sa proximité avec les terres rend la prévision très difficile. Le moindre décalage de la trajectoire, peut aussi modifier son intensité. Le NHC a sorti provisoirement un package "light", qui est surtout là pour émettre les premières alertes et vigilances. On verra bien dans la discussion de 21Z ce qu'ils en pensent vraiment.

post-3513-1285267825_thumb.jpg

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Le NHC n'a pas changé grand chose....

Ils ont fait de TD 15, la tempête Matthew, le treizième cyclone de la saison (encore 6/7 avant le haut des estimations, et plus qu'un avant le 30 septembre pour un record... )

On dirait qu'ils ne savent pas trop quoi donner donner comme trajectoire après 3 jours, avec un Matthew qui tourne un peu en rond.

post-3513-1285274774_thumb.png

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000

WTNT45 KNHC 232051

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010

500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE

CYCLONE FOUND 42-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT ABOUT 1500 FT IN THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG. THAT WIND SPEED WOULD

NORMALLY EQUATE TO ABOUT 34 KT AT THE SURFACE. ALSO...THERE WERE

SEVERAL BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 35-37 KT IN THAT AREA.

SINCE THOSE WIND REPORTS...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO

INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED..AND THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN

UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS

OR SO...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND

HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON

THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST

TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY 3...THE

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW IS

EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE ACROSS THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALL OF THE

NHC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYNOPTIC

SCALE PATTERN...EXCEPT FOR THE TIMING. THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...

HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP THE LOW WEST OF 85W LONGITUDE BY 120

HOURS...WHEREAS THE UKMET IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE

LARGE TROUGH EAST OF 80W. GIVEN THE USUAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF SUCH

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH...THE UKMET IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER MODEL

AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND

OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE UKMET SOLUTION...

AND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS SINCE MATTHEW

WILL BE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS AND BENEATH A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE

NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND MOVE INLAND NEAR

BELIZE BY DAY 4. LAND INTERACTION WOULD DISRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION

PROCESS DESPITE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER...THEN MATTHEW COULD

EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND

BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION

THAT MATTHEW WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 14.0N 76.9W 35 KT

12HR VT 24/0600Z 14.4N 78.9W 40 KT

24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.1N 81.7W 50 KT

36HR VT 25/0600Z 15.6N 84.0W 60 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 25/1800Z 16.2N 85.8W 60 KT...OVER WATER

72HR VT 26/1800Z 17.1N 88.0W 70 KT

96HR VT 27/1800Z 18.3N 88.4W 70 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 28/1800Z 19.5N 87.5W 70 KT...INLAND

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

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Bon sang de bonsoir, ce truc pourrait aller dans tous les sens : du Pacifique au Nord-Est !

Pauvre NHC !

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C'est clair que là je les plains les pauvres. Avec la responsabilité qu'ils ont en plus... C'est toute l'Amérique Centrale qui est menacé, et aucune certitude sur rien.. Les dernières images IR montre un CDO impressionnant. Il va faire du dégât le petit...

post-3513-1285308561_thumb.jpg

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Finalement, Matthew devrait rester au dessus des terres et s'affaiblire, mais la trajectoire à moyen terme reste toujours aussi incertaine. Lisa par contre développe un oeil. Ce serait cool qu'elle évolue en catégorie 1, ne serait que pour être la dernière de la dynastie des ouragans du Cap Vert, et éventuellement produire le premier ouragan non majeur depuis Alex (cela ne date pas d'hier quand même... )

post-3513-1285363404_thumb.jpg

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Lisa l'a fait. Catégorie 1 ... :

000

WTNT44 KNHC 250234

TCDAT4

HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010

1100 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF LISA HAS BECOME

OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASS FROM

AROUND 2300 UTC STILL SHOWED THAT AN EYE WAS PRESENT. SATELLITE

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 65 KT...THOUGH THE DATA-T VALUES

WERE HIGHER...AND THE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 72 KT. THE INITIAL

WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 70 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

LISA BASICALLY HAS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEFT FOR ANY STRENGTHENING

UNTIL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO INCREASE. AS

THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD ALSO INGEST DRIER AIR

AND BE AFFECTED BY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THUS STEADY WEAKENING

IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO

THE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE LISA IS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...

REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOT FORECAST UNTIL DAY 4...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT

BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO HAPPEN SOONER DUE TO LISA REMAINING OVER

SUB-26C WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 360/7. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE

SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS DURING

THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W IS

ADVANCING CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

CONSEQUENTLY...LESS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST

OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK RATHER

THAN NORTHWESTWARD. AS LONG AS LISA REMAINS A VERTICALLY STACKED

SYSTEM...A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY...SIMILAR TO

THE GFS AND ITS DEPENDENT MODEL SUITE. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS

POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL

EITHER BE A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATED BY THEN. THE NHC FORECAST IS

SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...AGAIN...BUT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE

DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 20.7N 27.9W 70 KT

12HR VT 25/1200Z 21.9N 28.1W 75 KT

24HR VT 26/0000Z 23.7N 28.3W 65 KT

36HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 28.5W 55 KT

48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.4N 28.8W 45 KT

72HR VT 28/0000Z 28.5N 29.2W 30 KT

96HR VT 29/0000Z 30.5N 29.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

La trajectoire est totalement atypique. Je ne me souviens pas avoir vu un ouragan voguer plein Est depuis Lenny en 1999...

post-3513-1285399768_thumb.png

Matthew n'a pas faiblit avec son passage au dessus des terres... La grande proximité avec les Caraïbes et le maintien d'une circulation très large lui ont permit de maintenir une convection produisant un CDO à -80/-90°. Ce doit être le déluge là dessous.

post-3513-1285400001_thumb.jpg

000

WTNT45 KNHC 250256

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010

1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

CORRECTED FOR 72-HOUR FORECAST STATUS

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS NOT WEAKENED MUCH THIS

EVENING. PUERTO LIMPERA IN EASTERN HONDURAS REPORTED A 10-MINUTE

WIND OF 38-40 KNOTS AT 2300 AND 0000 UTC...AND THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A

850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 58 KT AND A PEAK SFMR WINDS OF

51 KT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC.

BASED ON THESE DATA...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN OVER

LAND FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45

KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER

LAND...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FROM 12 TO 24

HOURS AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS

BEFORE MOVING INTO BELIZE. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS

FORECAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER

GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS

CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE DATA...SATELLITE FIXES AND RADAR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT

SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.

OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A

STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERALLY STEER

MATTHEW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. BY THE

TIME MATTHEW MOVES INTO GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW

WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST

IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE

SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE FORWARD SPEED WAS

TRENDED TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED

NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND

NICARAGUA...LIKELY PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE

AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN

AFTER MATTHEW WEAKENS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY

DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...

BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION OF A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 15.2N 85.0W 45 KT...INLAND

12HR VT 25/1200Z 15.6N 87.0W 35 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.2N 89.0W 35 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 26/1200Z 16.9N 90.7W 30 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 27/0000Z 17.2N 91.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72HR VT 28/0000Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

Quel mois de Septembre ... :whistling:

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Tiens, une curiosité. En 1998, Lisa a été pour la première fois utilisé, puisqu'en 1992 et 1986, on s'était arrêtait à F (Frances), et en 1980 à K (Karl).

En 1998, Lisa avait été un ouragan catégorie 1 avec cette trajectoire :

post-3513-1285400622_thumb.png

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998lisa.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lisa_(1998)

Et en 2004, Lisa avait été un ouragan de catégorie 1 avec cette trajectoire :

post-3513-1285400683_thumb.png

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004lisa.shtml?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lisa_(2004)

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Les modèles voient de manière unanime, une zone dépressionnaire de la circulation de mousson évoluer en cyclone tropical. L'activité convective n'est pas encore suffisamment consolidé pour que le NHC l'a mentionne avec un risque de cyclogénèse tropical, mais il faut garder un oeil sur cette région...

post-3513-1285410501_thumb.jpg

Modifié par paix

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Quelqu'un veut prendre une place au NHC ? :whistling:

aal152010092506trackear.png

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Tenace le bestiau ...

Si il arrive à trouver la Baie de Campèche, il pourra sans doute se redevelopper. Mais pour l'instant, les prévisions de la trajectoire vont du plein Ouest au plein Est....

post-3513-1285425768_thumb.jpg

Lisa résiste bien aussi, mais n'est sans doute plus un ouragan.

post-3513-1285425837_thumb.jpg

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Une image visible pourrait être bien utile pour Matthew. Le centre de bas niveau semble à la ramasse, et semble se séparer du centre d'altitude moyen. Le centre de bas niveau se distingue assez bien au large du Belize. Il est sans doute incapable de produire des vents de forces tempête tropicale, et le NHC pourrait redescendre Matthew en dépression tropicale au prochain bulletin intermédiaire.

Par contre, le centre d'altitude moyen se maintient, et produit toujours une convection très intense capable de générer un risque majeur pour l'Amérique centrale. Le NHC a Matthew en "remnant low", dépression résiduelle, au dessus du Yucatan Mexicain. La question est de savoir ce que va alors devenir le centre d'altitude moyen, qui résistera sans doute à la traversée de la péninsule. La plupart des modèles voient une dissipation au dessus du Yucatan, mais certains modèles, particulièrement GFS, voit le centre de niveau moyen retrouvé l'océan un moment ou à l'autre.

000

WTNT45 KNHC 251444

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010

1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010

THE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE

HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD

CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE AREA OF STRONGEST

THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE

LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO

LOCATE...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE INDICATE

THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH

COAST OF WESTERN HONDURAS. MATTHEW IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AS INDICATED BY THE STRONG

EASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REPORTED BY THE BELIZE RAOB

THIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT MOST OF

THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS

FORECAST.

THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT MATTHEW IS SLOWING DOWN YET. THE

INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13

KNOTS. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE

ENTIRE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST

DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MANY OF THE TRACK

MODELS KEEP MATTHEW OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO WHERE

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW DISSIPATING OR BECOMING A REMNANT

LOW.

WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY

RAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE

TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH

IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.2N 87.8W 35 KT

12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72HR VT 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

post-3513-1285426404_thumb.jpg

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Je ne serais pas surpris de voir Matthew émerger dans le BOC et ensuite prendre une trajectoire N-NE ... Je devrais peut-être postuler pour le NHC ...

Et effectivement, pas mal de modèles voient l'émergence d'un nouveau cyclone au Sud de Cuba se dirigeant vers la Floride. La future Nicole ?

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La convection s'est déplacé vers l'Est et a rejoint partiellement le LLC, avec toujours des pointes à -80°. Le LLC vient juste de franchir la ligne de côte, ceci étant nettement visible sur l'image visible. Matthew a donc officiellement touché terre une seconde fois en ce jour du 25 septembre, à 16Z.

Je serais incapable de dire ce que peu devenir Matthew. Un demi tour direction les Caraïbes, avec un réacoupplement du LLC et MLC, semble tout aussi possible qu'un désacoupplement total, avec le MLC qui rejoint un moment ou un autre le Golfe du Mexique. En ce moment, je serais bien incapable de dire ce que va devenir Matthew, et je n'aimerais pas être à la place du NHC. En tous cas, le maintien d'une convection profonde va maintenir un risque majeur de précipitations diluviennes. Si Matthew n'a jamais l'occasion d'atteindre le statut d'ouragan, il pourrait bien suivre le triste exemple d'Allison en devenant le deuxième nom porté par une tempête tropicale et retiré. Il y aurait déjà eu 7 morts au Venezuela.

post-3513-1285434463_thumb.jpg

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P.S. : LLC : Low level center, centre de bas niveau (dans la couche limite, sous 1500 mètres, 850 hPa environ) et MLC : Mid Level Cente , centre d'altitude moyenne (au dessus de la couche limite, entre 1500 et 5500 mètres, 850 à 500 hPa environ) pour les non anglophones.

Modifié par paix

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Logiquement, Matthew n'est plus qu'une dépression :

000

WTNT35 KNHC 251736

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010

100 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER BELIZE...HEAVY

RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.7N 88.6W

ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BELIZE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS

WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE

CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7

NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WITH A

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

MATTHEW FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT

12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND MATTHEW

IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS COULD STILL OCCUR TODAY

OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...

AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING

FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE

OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EVEN AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

000

WTNT35 KNHC 251736

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010

100 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER BELIZE...HEAVY

RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.7N 88.6W

ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BELIZE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS

WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE

CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7

NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WITH A

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

MATTHEW FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT

12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND MATTHEW

IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS COULD STILL OCCUR TODAY

OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...

AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING

FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE

OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EVEN AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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Logiquement, Matthew n'est plus qu'une dépression :

Une petite consolation, 40% de probabilité d'une nouvelle naissance dans le Pacifique Est... :devil:

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On se remonte le moral comme on peut :lol:

N'empêche, avec le cisaillement de vent, cela va encore être galère. Heureusement que le Pacifique maintient des anomalies de température de surface positives, parce que maintenir de la convection profonde dans ces conditions, cela demande de la ressource...

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C'est simplement hallucinant. Matthew maintient une profonde convection, avec un CDO à -80°, alors qu'il est au beau milieu du Yucatan. :blink:

Le LLC et la convection se sont rejoint. Le centre de surface est sans doute un peu déplacé sur le bord Est de la convection, mais il est sous la balle convective, c'est certain.

Et en ce moment, aucun prévisionniste n'est capable de dire ce qui va se passer. Le NHC parle d'une large circulation cyclonique, qui est nettement visible, et couvre de son ombre le Nord Ouest de la mer des Caraïbes et le Yucatan. De cette circulation cyclonique va émerger une dépression de mousson. Et un nouveau cyclone tropical devrait s'y former, mais à partir d'où ? De Matthew ou de ses restes, qui va revenir sur ces pas ? D'un développement autonome au sein de cette circulation de mousson ? Tous le monde avance en plein brouillard, et les choses ne risquent pas de se clarifier avant quelques jours. D'autant que si Matthew se maintient aussi bien et poursuit plein Ouest, il va fatalement finir par trouver la Baie de Campêche. C'est une option qui n'est pas évoqué par le NHC, mais elle ne semble as si improbable, vu que le centre de bas niveau pourra toujours se reformer si besoin est, et que la convection de Matthew s'alimente déjà en Baie de Campêche et dans le Pacifique.

WHILE THE ENS MEANS OF GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR AND EITHER COULD

BE USED AFTER DAY 5 OVER CONUS THE HPC PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS THE

00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN BASED ON ITS HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL LOW

FORMATION IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ITS SLOWER AND MORE WWD LIFT

NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CMC HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FAST

WITH ITS EJECTION INTO FL DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH THE 00Z ECMWF PICKING

IT UP BY DAY 5 AND RUNNING IT UP OFF THE ERN SEABOARD DAY 7 SAT.

UKMET HOLDS THE CIRCULATION BACK NEAR YUCATAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH

GFS OVER CENTRAL CUBA WHERE IT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES BEFORE IT IS

PICKED UP BY LATE SATURDAY AND EJECTED NEWD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF

ENS MEANS KEEP THE CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ERN GLFMEX NEAR THE

WRN FL COAST BY DAY 7. WHILE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS IS A BETTER

MATCH TOWARDS THE LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST LOCATION AND THE

TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO EJECT CARIBBEAN/LOWER GLFMEX SYSTEMS TOO

FAST.

06Z/12Z GFS RUNS HANDLING THE WRN CARIBBEAN SYSTEM HAVE A LARGE

SPREAD IN TRACK AND TIMING YIELDING A LOW CONFIDENCE HIGH

UNCERTAINTY FORECAST. LATEST 12Z CMC MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS PRIOR

RUN WHILE THE UKMET CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION NEAR

YUCATAN. THIS CONTINUED WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP THE HPC

SOLUTION NEAR THE SLOWER ECMWF AND GFS ENS MEANS. AGAIN A LOW

CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS ENS MEANS KEEP IN MUCH MORE OF TEH ATLC

SUBTROICAL RIDGE AND ALSO HOLD BACK THE ERN CONUS TROF AXIS WWD OF

OP MODELS AND ECMWF ENS MEAN SOLUTIONS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

WHICH WOULD KEEP A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION TO MUCH OF ERN CONUS MID

WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A PREFERRED SOLUTION AT

THIS TIME WITH AGAIN A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST APPROACH BEING USED

FOR NOW WITH NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS.

A PATTERN CHANGE FOR ERN CONUS TO COOLER AND VERY WET WITH THE

CUTOFF LOW EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A LINGERING TROF AND COASTAL

FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN SEABOARD LATE WEEK. WELL ABOVE AVG

TEMPS OVER WRN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED LOCATIONS

ESPECIALY IN THE ROCKIES HAVING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS. A HEAVY

RAIN AND WIND THREAT FOR CUBA AND FLORIDA MID WEEK INTO THE

WEEKEND DEPENDING UPON THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WRN

CARIBBEAN LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SEE TPC/HPC

DISCUSSIONS AND POTENTIAL FUTURE ADVISORIES.

ROSENSTEIN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010

400 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW MOVED

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE WHILE WEAKENING.

THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE A TIGHT INNER CORE AND WE ARE BASICALLY

TRACKING AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE WITH NUMEROUS

RAINBANDS FROM THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA

TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS

AND GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...

WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

MATTHEW HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN YET...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST

AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO

COLLAPSE SOON AND MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN

FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MEANDERING

ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF MATTHEW...

TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.4N 89.4W 30 KT...INLAND

12HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 91.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 90.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

Forecast for the rest of the tropics

Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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