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Saison 2010 : Ouragans, cyclones, typhons, tempêtes et dépressions

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Et 959 hPa. Plus que 13 (douze + un :lol: ) hPa avant le record...

Mais la structure d'Alex me laisse toujours aussi perplexe. J'ai du mal à comprendre comment il est organisé. On a le mur de l'œil avec un anneau de vents forts, avec des vitesses de 60 à 70 nœuds. Mais à distance existe un deuxième anneau de vents forts, sous la bande convective périphérique Sud et Est.... :huh:

De plus, et c'est réellement hallucinant, le NHC a monté Alex à 70 nœuds, mais l'avion n'a trouvé aucune preuve évidente de vents de cette force. Après, je ne reproche rien au NHC, c'est surtout pour signaler que le 70 nœuds est vraiment le maximum possible que soutient Alex.

Un ouragan qui se renforce a un anneau de vents forts unique qui se contracte autour de l'œil. Je ne vois pas comment dans ces conditions Alex peut se renforcer. Et pourtant, on a toujours ce mismatch entre pression et vent. En suivant la règle du Pacifique Ouest, les vents devraient monter à 85 nœuds, catégorie 2. Si on suit la règle de l'Atlantique, les vents devraient monter à 100 nœuds, catégorie 3.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 10:42Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010

Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 11

Observation Number: 10

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 10:27:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°22'N 95°07'W (23.3667N 95.1167W)

B. Center Fix Location: 232 miles (373 km) to the SE (140°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,063m (3,488ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 208° at 67kts (From the SSW at ~ 77.1mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 8:33:40Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 10:29:40Z

General Notes About Vortex Messages:

- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."

- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."

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Si Alex nous fait un pinhole eye.... je ne sais pas dquoi dire après :lol:

201006301045goes13xir1k.jpg

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La pression est inférieur à 957 hPa .... :surprise: :surprise: :surprise:

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Bon, finalement, 958 hPa. Je ne sais pas comment ils ont corrigés la pression, mais on va leur faire confiance, c'est quand même eux qui sont dans le zinc :D

Le mur de l'œil refuse de se fermer, et l'œil reste encombré sur les images satellites. C'est tout simplement incompréhensible. Je ne sais pas comment il peut continuer à se creuser avec un cœur aussi mal foutu. Et les vents refusent de suivre la pression. Je ne sais pas quel est le gradient de pression dans le coin, mais c'est dément qu'un ouragan de 958 hPa peine à soutenir des vents à 70 nœuds :blink:

Il tourne aussi vers le Nord Ouest, et vu sa faible vitesse de progression, cela lui permet de rester encore plus longtemps au dessus du GOM ...

Des hautes pressions aux alentour de 700 / 500 hPa le bloque dans sa progression.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 12:30Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010

Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 11

Observation Number: 15

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 12:12:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°32'N 95°12'W (23.5333N 95.2W)

B. Center Fix Location: 219 miles (353 km) to the SE (139°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,052m (3,451ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 300° at 62kts (From the WNW at ~ 71.3mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 958mb (28.29 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 9 nautical miles

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:16:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:16:30Z

Maximum Wind Outbound: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:16:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:16:30Z

General Notes About Vortex Messages:

- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."

- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."

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Bonjour !

P.S. : L'avion est reparti pour un alpha pattern

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V'là le délire, la convection est plus organisé à l'extérieur du cœur d'Alex, et le mur de l'œil n'arrive pas à se construire au Nord. Et pourtant, la pression semble toujours en baisse, et les vents sont toujours à la ramasse.

Pour le coup, je trouve qu'Alex se rapproche bien plus de la situation d'Ike. Même mismatch entre pression et vents (même si Alex a atteint es sommets en la matière, Ike avait été la plupart du temps catégorie 2 avec 950 / 960 hPa), et même problème de la circulation périphérique qui bouffe le cœur du système. La forte convection périphérique explique aussi probablement le faible gradient de pression, et donc la faible vitesse des vents. La pression creuse malgré tout, car la convection est bonne, et l'outflow excellent compense l'absence d'un œil potable. Malgré la faiblesse des vents, la grande surface couverte par la convection permet une convergence très forte, et même déplacée par rapport au centre d'Alex, qui aide à creuser, mais à creuser "à plat". En ajoutant cela au fait que la pression dans le coin est déjà basse, cela explique finalement cette forte baisse de la pression.

Mon opinion, au vu de la réserve d'énergie du golfe, et le fait qu'Alex ne parviendra pas à améliorer sa structure, et qu'il ne pourra pas descendre en dessous des 945 /950 hPa. Reste à savoir si il y arrivera....

Je me basse sur le fait que dans le Pacifique Ouest, la borne basse de la pression d'un ouragan sans œil est un peu inférieur à cette fourchette, et que la pression minimale potentielle est aux alentour de 920 hPa. Si Alex veut creuser sous les 940 hPa, il devra arriver à enfin se structurer.

Les vents vont peut être se renforcer graduellement, mais tant que le champ des vents restera aussi étendu et la convection périphérique aussi importante, Alex ne pourra pas se renforcer. Je ne lui donne aucune probabilité de devenir majeur avant l'échouage si il ne restructure, et je pense qu'il restera plus probablement en catégorie 1, même si une catégorie 2 est elle aussi de l'ordre du probable.

Pour le reste, si Alex parvient à se structurer décemment, il pourra aller bien plus loin.

201006301213f15x85hw01l.jpg

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961 hPa. Alex galère vraiment, et l'avion n'a même pas trouvé d'oeil ce coup-ci. Il a trouvé 5 mm/h au centre.

Une image, plus précise et complète que celle postée précédemment, qui confirme qu'au Nord, le mur de l'œil est en difficulté.

201006301229f17x91h1deg.jpg

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 14:32Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010

Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 11

Observation Number: 20

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 14:05:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°49'N 95°26'W (23.8167N 95.4333W)

B. Center Fix Location: 195 miles (313 km) to the SE (139°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,063m (3,488ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 52° at 62kts (From the NE at ~ 71.3mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z

Maximum Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z

General Notes About Vortex Messages:

- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."

- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."

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C'est du condensé, mais cela résume bien la situation :

000

WTNT41 KNHC 301448

TCDAT1

HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

1000 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING WITH T-NUMBERS FROM

TAFB AND SAB REACHING 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE

MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 958 MB AND 961 MB.

HOWEVER...BOTH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA SUPPORT AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF ONLY 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LATEST

RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THERE ARE TWO WIND MAXIMA ON THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE AND WINDS ARE SPREAD OUT IN

OTHER QUADRANTS. GIVEN SUCH A LOW MINIMUM PRESSURE...THE CURRENT

SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

INTENSIFICATION...THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AND ALEX COULD

REACH CATEGORY TWO BEFORE LANDFALL.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE

REPLACED BY A RIDGE SOON. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ALEX

ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATER TODAY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST A SHARP

TURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST DEPENDING UPON THE

FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN EACH MODEL. THIS TRACK SHOULD

BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALEX IS A LARGE

HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING A GREAT

DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. RADAR DATA SHOW THAT STRONG SQUALLS AND

GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NEARING THE SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO

COASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 23.8N 95.5W 70 KT

12HR VT 01/0000Z 24.1N 96.7W 85 KT

24HR VT 01/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W 45 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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La manière de penser des étasuniens me laisse toujours aussi perplexe :D

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/news/towa...lex-valley.html

(AP) — Hurricane Alex churned westward through the Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, far from oil spill cleanup efforts but on a collision course with Mexico and the southern Texas coastline.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami upgraded the storm to a Category 1 hurricane — the least powerful type — shortly before 10 p.m. CDT Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, it had sustained winds of 80 mph. Alex became the first June hurricane in the Atlantic since 1995, the center said.

Bands of intense rain began lashing deep south Texas and northeast Mexico Wednesday morning as Alex slowed its movement to 7 mph. The National Weather Service pushed Alex's landfall back to late Wednesday night or early Thursday and raised the possibility that it would make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane.

Texas residents had been preparing for the storm for days, readying their homes and businesses and stocking up on household essentials. But the storm was expected to deal only a glancing blow to the state and to make landfall south of Matamoros, Mexico, and some 100 miles south of Brownsville.

The storm was expected to pack winds of at least 90 mph when it comes ashore, but those could increase to as much as 110 mph if it strengthened to a Category 2.

As of 7 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Alex was 220 miles southeast of Brownsville moving west-northwest at about 7 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph.

Coastal residents and vacationers looking forward to the Fourth of July weekend began preparing in earnest Tuesday for the storm.

Oil rigs and platforms in the path of the storm's outer bands were evacuated, and President Barack Obama issued a pre-emptive federal disaster declaration for southern Texas counties late Tuesday.

The three oil rigs and 28 platforms evacuated are not part of the Gulf oil spill response. Alex is projected to stay far away from the spill zone and not effect recovery efforts, but tall waves kicked up by the farthest reaches of Alex did toss oil-soaking boom around the water.

Texas also watched Alex's outer bands warily. Alex was expected to bring torrential rains to a Rio Grande delta region that is ill suited — both economically and geographically — to handle it.

Passing showers Tuesday quickly pooled along parts of downtown streets in Brownsville and Matamoros, a worrisome sign with Alex expected to dump eight to 12 inches of rain in the region and as much as 20 inches in isolated areas.

In Matamoros, cab driver Alfonso Lopez said he worried that that people would wait until the last minute to take the storm seriously.

"A lot of people trust too much that it won't be very bad or it will change course," he said.

In Cameron County, one of the poorest areas of the U.S. and Texas' southernmost point, Brownsville Mayor Pat Ahumada said he would wait to make his city's emergency declaration in part because the city is cash strapped and he did not want to start paying city workers extra before absolutely necessary.

On nearby South Padre Island, the mood was less anxious. Although hotels and restaurants looked deserted compared to the crush of vacationers who normally pack the popular vacation spot in the summer, those who stuck around didn't size up Alex as much of a threat.

One couple renewed their wedding vows on the beach as a few campers rumbled their trailers — reluctantly — out of the park hours before a mandatory evacuation deadline.

"It's June. It's too soon for hurricanes," said Gloria Santos, of Edinburgh, after hitching her trailer back to her truck.

Jerry Wilson, 50, also didn't think much of Alex while struggling to hoist a painter's pole in fierce gusts. With a cloth rigged to the top of the pole, Wilson was cleaning his 10 cameras across the island that will let Internet viewers watch Alex's arrival live online.

"We got two generators and lots of guns and ammo, so we're not worried about it," Wilson said.

The National Weather Service said a hurricane warning was in effect Tuesday for Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties. The coastal warning covered Baffin Bay and 100 miles south to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

In Matamoros, government workers stuck duct-tape in X's across the windows Tuesday of the immigration office at the main downtown bridge. Trucks cruised slowly down residential streets, replacing people's large drinking water jugs and cars packed supermarket parking lots.

Matamoros Civil Protection Director Saul Hernandez said they would begin evacuating about 2,500 people from coastal areas east of the city Wednesday morning. But Hernandez said his real concern was the 13,000 families in 95 of the city's low-lying colonias, unincorporated areas where residents frequently have no public utilities or city services.

He urged residents to make their own preparations to ride out the storm.

"This is where we live," he said. "We have to confront it."

___

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Alors que la pression remonte, les vents se renforcent. Faut pas chercher à comprendre... :whistling:

Une radio sonde a trouvé 81 nœuds dans le mur, ce qui sera sans doute la base d'un update d'Alex en haut de la catégorie 1, à 80 nœuds.

Le double maximum des vents persiste avec un maximum des vents d'altitude dans la convection périphérique. Ces deux mesures montrent que l'anneau périphérique pourrait prendre l'ascendant, et que les vents de force ouragan pourrait descendre à la surface, étendant dramatiquement le rayon des vents forts d'Alex.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 17:36Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010

Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 12

Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 17:13:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°16'N 96°02'W (24.2667N 96.0333W)

B. Center Fix Location: 147 miles (236 km) to the SE (142°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,112m (3,648ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the E (88°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 96kts (From the SE at ~ 110.5mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 962mb (28.41 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the east quadrant at 16:51:20Z

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SW/WSW (236°) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

PARTIAL EYEWALL NE QUAD

General Notes About Vortex Messages:

- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."

- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."

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Le NHC le maintient quand même a 70 nœuds, vu le profil atypique de la circulation sans doute :

000

WTNT31 KNHC 301750

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

100 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN

MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W

ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED

BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

BROWNSVILLE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.

ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...NEAR 12

MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE

SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST LATER TODAY. THE

CENTER OF ALEX WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO

WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY

MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME

A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING

SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD

UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE

NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE

BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE

AUTOMATIC STATION IN MATAMOROS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST

OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN

TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...

ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR

SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE

SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN

THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS

ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST

TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD

PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH

GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...

THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME

SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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En fait, c'était prévisible d'avoir un truc pareil avec une pression aussi profonde et des vents aussi "faibles". Quand on voit la taille du machin, on se dit que la circulation est trop énorme pour avoir un cat2 ou 3.

rgb-l.jpg

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Ouaip, au final, cela ne valait pas tant d'excitation :D

L'image met bien en évidence ces deux anneaux de convections qui s'entretuent depuis avant hier. La pression va maintenant remonter, les vents de force ouragan vont s'étendre sans se renforcer, ou à peine, le Texas Sud ne va rien comprendre à ce qui lui arrive, et puis voila.

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Encore une quinzaine d'heures en mer, bientôt cat2. 150 à l'heure, c'est quand même pas rien. Y'a beaucoup de monde dans les parages à part les coyotes et leurs clients mexicains ? :whistling:

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Je crains quand même pour le Sud Texas. La frontière est quand même peuplé (mais il vrai que résumer cela aux coyotes et leurs clients est plutôt exacte :lol2: :lol2: :lol2: ), et avec l'extension des vents de force ouragan, et la tendance d'Alex à remonter vers le Nord, il risque d'être surpris. Pour la catégorie 2, c'est en effet la prévision du NHC. Elle est réaliste, mais personnellement, j'aurais quand même tendance à penser qu'Alex n'arrivera pas à se hisser jusque là dû à l'extension du rayon des vents. M'enfin, on verra bien.

Au Mexique, c'est aussi à la frontière que la densité de population est la plus forte. je n'ai pas de carte, mais l'intérieur du Tamaulipas n'est pas très peuplé.

post-3513-1277925141_thumb.png

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Alex est à 100 km des côtes à peu près, cela va être dur pour lui d'atteindre la catégorie 2 je pense. Mais une "surprise" n'est pas à exclure.

000

WTNT41 KNHC 302036

TCDAT1

HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

AFTER A FEW HOURS OF A TRACK BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST

EARLIER TODAY...AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT

ALEX HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF ABOUT 11

KNOTS. THE RIDGE THAT WAS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE

HURRICANE HAS MATERIALIZED AND IS NOW FORCING ALEX TO TAKE A LEFT

TURN DIRECTLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

PERSIST AND ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR

THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MEXICO.

ALEX IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND BOTH HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS EXTEND A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL

DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED

THIS MORNING...WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN

TEXAS COAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD RATHER KEEP THE HURRICANE

WARNINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT ALEX IS BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE

WINDS HAVE INCREASED. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR

ARE 96 KNOTS AND SFMR REPORTED 81 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE

CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT ON VISIBLE IMAGES

AND IS SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON

THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW ALEX TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO

HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 24.5N 96.8W 80 KT

12HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

48HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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Après relecture des données de l'avion et de l'image satellite, j'ai qu'une chose à dire : heureusement qu'il y a la terre devant ! Le centre d'Alex semble se contracté et je pense qu'il n'a jamais eu autant de chance de dominer le reste de la circulation. Le double maximum s'est atténué, les vents les plus forts se sont relocalisés sous le mur de l'œil. Il garde cependant toujours sa large circulation et ses vents qui s'étendant loin du centre. Seul le radar est moins optimiste : http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO...111&loop=no

Il reste 3 heures. Cela fait vraiment court, et les chances d'une intensification rapide n'aurait jamais été aussi élevées si il n'avait les terres devant lui.

post-3513-1277931072_thumb.jpg

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Je savais qu'il en avait la capacité, mais de là à le faire :blink:

Il est à 955 hPa, à 9 hPa de Audrey. Si il le fait, j'offre une bouteille de gris de Toul a qui le veut.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 21:32Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010

Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 12

Observation Number: 18

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 21:14:30Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°21'N 96°56'W (24.35N 96.9333W)

B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (184 km) to the SSE (162°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,042m (3,419ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (350°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 94kts (From the E at ~ 108.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Closed

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:51:20Z

General Notes About Vortex Messages:

- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."

- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."

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Et 947 hPa. Record loupé de 1 hPa. La rage... :lol:

Alex avait typiquement l'apparence d'un ouragan en plein cycle de remplacement du mur de l'œil, mais cela me semblait impossible pour un catégorie 1. Et bien, Jeff Masters pense qu'Alex a tenté de le faire, et maintenant qu'il met le doigt dessus cela pourrait expliquer bien des choses.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...l?entrynum=1531

Quand on réfléchit cependant, le cycle de remplacement est bien plus probablement lié à la pression et l'intensité de la convection qu'aux vents. Le Golfe qui n'était pas loin de l'ébullition et la pression historiquement basse doivent pouvoir justifier en grande partie le cycle.

Alex's bizarre behavior

Alex had several rather remarkable features I've never seen in a hurricane. Firstly, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Usually, we don't see the inner eyewall collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle occur until a hurricane reaches Category 3 strength. I've seen it happen on occasion to a Category 2 storm, but never a Category 1. Secondly, after Alex's inner 9-mile diameter eyewall collapsed at 10am EDT yesterday morning, an outer spiral band began to become the new eyewall. Winds in this outer spiral band/new eywall increased as the day progressed, as typically happens in an eyewall replacement cycle. However, part way through that process, Alex suddenly reversed course, and was able to build a small inner eyewall with a 12-mile diameter that was completed by landfall. I've never seen a hurricane change its mind in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle and build an inner eyewall so fast. Finally, Alex had an unusually weak winds, considering how low the pressure was. The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.

Et sinon, c'est moi qui délire, où il n'y a pas grand monde sur ce topic ? Je m'excite peut être un peu facilement et je devrais prendre un peu de recul, et je poste sans fin sur ce topic, mais je ne voudrais pas non plus faire fuir tout le monde....

Modifié par paix

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Franchement, j'ai un peu de mal à suivre l'actualité. J'espère avoir plus de temps ce mois-ci.

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(...)

Et sinon, c'est moi qui délire, où il n'y a pas grand monde sur ce topic ? Je m'excite peut être un peu facilement et je devrais prendre un peu de recul, et je poste sans fin sur ce topic, mais je ne voudrais pas non plus faire fuir tout le monde....

Personnellement, je suis tes messages avec beaucoup d'intérêt...

;)

Ce n'est pas parce qu'il n'y a pas grand monde qui poste des messages sur ce topic qu'il n'y a pas grand monde qui lit...

On peut voir le nombre de lecture si on va dans le menu climatologie... (lien)

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Ouaip, c'est pas faux. Je m'inquiète surtout d'étouffer le topic en squattant tout le temps ici.

Sinon, un nouvel invest pour l'Atlantique. 10% de chance, cela fait peu, mais pourquoi pas ? Le problème ne sera pas tellement les SST (le Golfe est à 31/32°, voire localement 33,4° dans le Nord :huh: et l'Été n'en est qu'a son tiers :blink: Au passage, même si il est encore un peu tôt pour tirer le bilan du passage d'Alex, la poche à 27/28° au Nord du Yucatán est de sa patte), mais la proximité des côtes, le cisaillement de vent, et son origine extratropical. Il aura pour lui la déferlante massive d'humidité tropicale dans le sillage d'Alex, avec une instabilité presque spontané, et une humidité supra élevée si je puis dire...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL

ZONE...CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS

EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS LOW

WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL

DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

NNNN

post-3513-1278078297_thumb.png

La température de l'eau. Pour un peu, on pourrait faire la cuisine dans le Golfe sans le gaz. Suffit de pêcher les homards, ils sont déjà cuits :lol:

post-3513-1278078281_thumb.png

L'humidité. On pourra noter le caractère frontale de cette zone instable, avec l'advection d'air sec (et froid) au Nord

mosaic20100702t120000.gif

wvlt.jpg

P.S. : Je vous rajoute une petite carte de surface avec :

nationalforecast.jpg

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On est déjà a C ???

C'est vraiment tôt dans la saison, il me semble...

:unsure:

D pour Darby ... :whistling:

On est à 4.

Mais c'est le Pacifique Est. le début de la saison a été plutôt rapide, mais n'a rien d'exceptionnel. Le seul record est qu'on a réussi à caser deux ouragans majeurs avant le 25 juin. Le dernier record en la matière a été le 30 juin 1978 : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_Pacific_...urricane_Daniel

La moyenne climatologique veut que le deuxième système du Pacifique se forme le 25 juin, et le 3è le 5 juillet. Ce qui est plutôt impressionnant est la catégorie 5 de Celia, un cas à part avec l'ouragan Ava : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ava_%281973%29

Le NHC publie un avis mensuel pour chaque mois officiel de la saison. Je vous posterais celui de Juin quand il sera sorti.

Et cela ne veut rien dire aussi pour la suite. Le premier exemple qui me vient en tête est 1996. À la même date, il y avait déjà 3 tempêtes tropicales et une dépression, mais le reste de la saison fut pour le moins soporifique : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Pacific_hurricane_season

Le déroulement moyen d'une saison dans le Pacifique est et l'Atlantique :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

Et l'opinion du NHC au sujet de Mai 2010 :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/tws/MIATWSEP_may.shtml?

Finalement, l'ACE du mois de Juin (accumulated cyclonic energy, une échelle de mesure qui tient compte des vents et de la durée de vie du système) a aussi battu un record. Merci à la catégorie 5 de Celia, même si j'aurais préféré avoir un avion là dedans pour en être sûr...

En gros, le rythme de lancement de la saison a été rapide, mais c'est surtout d'avoir réussi à casser un cat5 et un cat3 avant la fin juin qui reste remarquable.

Sinon, je pense que ce début de saison est un pétard mouillé. Je pense que Mai et Juin ont été influencé par l'El Nino de début d'année. La Nina est encore jeune, et n'a sans doute pas réussi à étendre sa destructrice influence au Pacifique Est.

Par contre, j'avais dit que je le ferais, mais je ne l'ai pas encore fais, je voudrais chercher à comprendre si Celia et Ava (en 1973) ont des similitudes.

Le plus délirant est le début de saison du Pacifique Ouest. Un cyclone tropical nommé, et un ACE inférieur à celui de l'Atlantique. :whistling:

Habituellement, la hiérarchie se fait ainsi : Pacifique Ouest / Pacifique Est / Atlantique. Là, le Pacifique Ouest se fait m*ttre par l'Atlantique, et encore plus par le Pacifique Est...

000

ABPZ30 KNHC 011316

TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM PDT THU JUL 01 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

JUNE WAS A VERY ACTIVE MONTH IN THE BASIN WITH THREE TROPICAL STORMS

OBSERVED...TWO OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES THAT EVENTUALLY REACHED

MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY. THIS COMPARES TO THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE

OF ABOUT TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE EVERY YEAR...AND A

MAJOR HURRICANE ABOUT EVERY OTHER YEAR. USING THE ACCUMULATED

CYCLONE ENERGY INDEX...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED DURATION

AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...2010 HAD THE

HIGHEST JUNE ACE VALUE ON RECORD...ECLIPSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD IN

1984...AND WAS MORE THAN THREE TIMES THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE. ONE

SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALSO FORMED.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB

SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)

-------------------------------------------------

TS AGATHA 29-30 MAY 45

TD TWO-E 16-17 JUN 30

TS BLAS 17-21 JUN 65

MH CELIA 19-29 JUN 160

MH DARBY 23-28 JUN 120

-------------------------------------------------

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

000

ABNT30 KNHC 011127

TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE ALEX WAS THE ONLY TROPICAL CYCLONE OBSERVED DURING THE

MONTH OF JUNE AND THE FIRST JUNE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SINCE

1995. IT WAS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY TWO JUNE HURRICANE SINCE 1966.

ON AVERAGE...A TROPICAL STORM OCCURS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JUNE

EVERY OTHER YEAR...AND A HURRICANE ABOUT ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS. ALEX

MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST IN THE MUNICIPALITY

OF SOTO LA MARINA LATE ON 30 JUNE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB

SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE

LETTERS...HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)

----------------------------------------------------

H ALEX 25 JUN- 105

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

On pourra ajouter au privilège d'Alex, la deuxième pression la plus basse de l'Atlantique en Juin. Toute proportion garder, c'est comme se faire du 890 hPa en Septembre....

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