Saison 2010-2011 Ouragans, cyclones, typhons, tempêtes et dépressions

[paix 0]

Je ne suis pas sûr que le fil aura un grand succès

Mais j'essaye quand même.

Dans l'hémisphère Sud, l'océan Indien plus précisément, la saison vient de commencer :

IDW24400

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this

warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2

Issued at 2:49 pm WST on Saturday 30 October 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Cocos

(Keeling) Islands.

At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be

510 kilometres north of Cocos Island and moving west at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or early on

Sunday. Although it is currently moving westwards, it is expected to take a

southwards turn, and is likely to pass close to the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.

Conditions are favourable for intensification and there is a significant risk

that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Gales are not expected on the islands during Saturday or Sunday, but may

develop on before sunrise on Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies.

The period of greatest risk will commence on Monday evening, with the system

likely to pass close to the islands during Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:

.Centre located near...... 7.7 degrees South 96.0 degrees East

.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres

.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 7 kilometres per hour

.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING

.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity

.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a BLUE ALERT for communities on Home and

West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an

emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare

batteries, food and water.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for

the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Saturday 30 October.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

REMARKS:

The system has significantly improved organisation over the last 24 hours,

despite continuing moderate shear. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to

overcome the shear, and low to mid level curvature of the cloud lines has

improved markedly in microwave imagery together with a consolidation of the

central overcast.

Using a shear pattern consistently gives a DT of around T3.0 over the last 3

available images. The MET is at 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of D+ and

yesterdays assignment of T1.0 at 00Z. Pattern matching does not indicate any

adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are no FT

constraints to assigning 3.0 hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. The 0244Z ASCAT

pass indicates 25-30 knots in the western semicircle, however given the

previously reported low bias of ASCAT it is possible that winds in this region

are 30-35 knots. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 30 knots. This

system is considered to be very close to TC intensity and gales are likely to

extend around the LLCC during the next diurnally favourable period overnight.

Shear conditions are forecast to become more favourable during Sunday and the

system will remain over SST>28C. The mid latitude system passing to the south

erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast during

Sunday. This also brings the system under the ridge into light shear and by

Sunday evening the system should be experiencing quite favourable conditions.

The development of the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental

to this system so based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the

trend in STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on

Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands has a high risk of

impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The

system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of

the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off

to the southwest on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 30/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

Modifié 30 octobre 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

Quelle convection

Le dernier Dvorak est à T2.5, mais le dernier passage de l'ASCAT n'est pas très concluant. On va bien voir ce qu'en dit le BOM.

[ElNino27 0]

Ah ben oui il faudrait une autre couleur ...

[paix 0]

Et voici Anggrek :

IDW27600

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION

Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 0658 UTC 31/10/2010

Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

Identifier: 01U

Data At: 0600 UTC

Latitude: 8.6S

Longitude: 96.3E

Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]

Movement Towards: south southeast [147 deg]

Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]

Central Pressure: 998 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:

Radius of 64-knot winds:

Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]

Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.0/24HRS STT:0.0/6HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]

Storm Depth: Deep

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+12: 31/1800: 9.5S 96.8E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 992

+24: 01/0600: 10.5S 97.4E: 085 [155]: 060 [110]: 982

+36: 01/1800: 11.5S 97.7E: 110 [205]: 070 [130]: 974

+48: 02/0600: 12.8S 97.8E: 130 [240]: 080 [150]: 966

+60: 02/1800: 13.8S 97.6E: 165 [305]: 080 [150]: 965

+72: 03/0600: 14.5S 97.2E: 200 [370]: 075 [140]: 970

REMARKS:

The deep convection continues to be displaced to the west of the LLCC under

moderate vertical shear. A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of T3.0. The

MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of S. Pattern matching does not indicate any

adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. The final wind

intensity estimate is assigned at 40 knots.

There has been no development over the last 24 hours as the system continues to

experience moderate shear. However conditions are forecast to become more

favourable overnight with shear forecast to diminish and an outflow channel

likely to become better established to the south.

Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP

and STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of

impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The

system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of

the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off

to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP

guidance does not weaken the system until later.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 31/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

Le cisaillement s'oppose à son développement. Il est actuellement sous 20 à 30 nœuds de cisaillement de l'Est. L'image visible met en évidence un LLC isolé sur le bord Est de la balle convective.

Ah ben oui il faudrait une autre couleur ...

Comme ceci ? ...

Avant qu'on n'atteigne la couleur noir sur cette échelle, on a le temps

Modifié 31 octobre 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

La convection se renforce (on n'a toujours pas atteint la couleur noir... )

Mais Anggrek reste cisaillé. En même temps, c'est le premier de la saison, et il est assez précoce. Le BOM l'a passé à 45 noeuds dans son dernier bulletin.

[paix 0]

Tiens, c'est fait... (cela correspond à -80° au sommet)

Sinon, Anggrek est moins cisaillé, même si l'anticyclone d'altitude est toujours déplacé au Sud Est. Le BOM vient de revoir à la hausse son intensité avec 55 nœuds de vent.

L'IR en AVN pour le fun

Modifié 31 octobre 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

Abele est en cours d'affaiblissement, mais durant la semaine, il est devenu le premier cyclone tropical de la saison :

Il est sans doute superflu d'ajouter que Meteo France et le BOM ont cessé l'émission de bulletin ...

[paix 0]

Les Australiens vont avoir droit pour Noël à la visite surprise de Tasha, cyclone tropical de l'Océan Pacifique. Heureusement, elle s'est formé il y a quelques heures et est sur le point de s'échouer, limitant fortement ces possibilités de renforcement :

IDQP0005

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this

warning.

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane

Issued at 2:11am EST on Saturday the 25th of December 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Port Douglas to

Cardwell.

At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Tasha, Category 1, was estimated to be

95 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 195 kilometres north northeast of

Cardwell and is moving west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour towards the

coast.

GALES have already been observed offshore and should develop about coastal parts

over the next several hours.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of up to 100 km/h are expected to develop about the north

tropical coast and continue throughout Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL and associated flooding will continue in coastal areas between

Port Douglas and Cardwell and extend inland during Saturday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for areas south of Cardwell.

People between Port Douglas and Cardwell should remain inside until the cyclone

has passed and listen to the next advice at 5 am.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster

Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [sES] on

132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on

buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Cyclone Tasha at 1:00 am EST:

.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 146.6 degrees East

.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres

.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour

.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING

.Severity category........ 1

.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Saturday 25 December.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's

website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State

Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Modifié 24 décembre 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

C'est fait, Tasha s'affaiblit rapidement au dessus des terres australiennes.

IDQP0005

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this

warning.

Priority

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane

Issued at 8:10am EST on Saturday the 25th of December 2010

The Cyclone WARNING from Port Douglas to Cardwell has been cancelled.

At 7:00 am EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tasha was estimated to be

40 kilometres southwest of Cairns and 25 kilometres south southeast of Mareeba

and is

moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

The EX-CYCLONE is expected to continue to weaken as it moves inland.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tasha at 7:00 am EST:

.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 145.5 degrees East

.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres

.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour

.Wind gusts near centre... 65 kilometres per hour

.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity

.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

This is the last warning on Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tasha. Severe Weather Warnings

will continue to be issued for heavy rainfall and further flooding.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's

website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State

Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[paix 0]

Même si Tasha est passé, la situation reste bien agitée sur la côte Australienne. Je m'abstiens de vous reproduire ici tous les flood warnings en cours (13 si je sais encore compté... ), mais juste l'avertissement de temps sévère :

IDQ20032

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for Heavy rainfall

For people about the east coast between Mackay and the NSW border, extending

inland to the Central Highlands and Coalfields, the northeast Maranoa and

Warrego and the northern Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.

Issued at 4:45 am on Sunday 26 December 2010

Synoptic Situation: At 4:00 am EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tasha had weakened into a

broad rain depression northwest of Hughenden and was moving southwest at around

30 kilometres per hour. A 1021 hPa high in the southern Tasman Sea extended a

firm ridge onto the Queensland east coast.

Heavy rainfall is forecast to move south between Mackay and the NSW border on

the east coast and inland through the Central Highlands and Coalfields, the

northeast Maranoa and Warrego and the northern Darling Downs and Granite Belt

districts.

Recent Events:

Rainfall of up to 160mm inland from Mackay and 130mm at Rockhampton since 9am

Saturday. Increasing rainfall being observed on radar through the Capricornia

and Wide Bay and Burnett districts.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters

· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours

· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11 am Sunday AEST

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's

website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency

Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Conséquence possible de La Nina, les précipitations ayant tendance à augmentées en Australie avec la fille terrible du Pacifique.

[paix 0]

On a un candidat au statut de tempête tropicale dans l'Océan Indien Sud, mais cela n'est pas certain qu'il le fasse :

IDW27600

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION

Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 1300 UTC 01/01/2011

Name: Tropical Low

Identifier: 06U

Data At: 1200 UTC

Latitude: 19.3S

Longitude: 114.0E

Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]

Movement Towards: west [267 deg]

Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h] reaching 35 knots on the southern

side

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]

Central Pressure: 993 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:

Radius of 64-knot winds:

Radius of Maximum Winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]

Storm Depth: Deep

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+12: 02/0000: 19.5S 110.9E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 988

+24: 02/1200: 19.3S 109.0E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 994

+36: 03/0000: 19.5S 107.9E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 993

+48: 03/1200: 19.9S 106.5E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 993

+60: 04/0000: 20.3S 104.9E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 993

+72: 04/1200: 20.6S 104.0E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 992

REMARKS:

The fix location during the day was weighted toward observations from offshore

platforms, though VIS imagery suggests a location slightly to the north and

east. The rapid translation [-20 knots] makes the surface location a little

tricky. It is notable that even with the rapid translation the cloud signature

indicates northeasterly shear, implying high level winds of greater than 20

knots.

Dvorak: Difficult to assign DT due to the uncertainty of low level centre

location. FT based on MET of 2.0 based on D- trend.

The system has a narrow window for development and may struggle to reach TC

intensity before reaching cooler waters by late Sunday. The system is also

forecast to slow down by Monday, which may actually be a result of some

weakening, but which will also increase system relative shear.

Model guidance is consistent with a general westerly track over the next 48

hours due to a strong mid level ridge to the south taking the system over cooler

SSTs. In the longer term the system is expected to weaken over open water well

away from the WA mainland.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[paix 0]

Zelia s'est formé le 13 Janvier. Le cyclone se trouve au large de Queensland, mais devrait passé au large des côtes de cette province. L'image satellite montre un oeil :

IDQ20065

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland Region

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

For 5:04 am EST on Sunday 16 January 2011

At 4 am EST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia (Category 3) with central

pressure 970 hPa was located

over the Coral Sea near latitude 16.1 south longitude 154.9 east, which is

about 1970 km northwest of Norfolk Island and 930 km east northeast of

Townsville.

The cyclone is moving east southeast at about 34 kilometres per hour.

The available guidance for Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia is very consistent in

predicting the storm to continue moving to the southeast, remaining well off

the mainland Australian coast. The system is expected to weaken in a day or or

two.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST Sunday.

[paix 0]

Zelia reste un puissant cyclone très bien organisé avec un solide mur de l'oeil :

IDQ20018

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 0704 UTC 16/01/2011

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia

Identifier: 10U

Data At: 0600 UTC

Latitude: 19.0S

Longitude: 158.7E

Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]

Movement Towards: southeast [130 deg]

Speed of Movement: 24 knots [44 km/h]

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]

Central Pressure: 957 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]

Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]

Radius of Maximum Winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]

Storm Depth: Deep

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+12: 16/1800: 22.8S 162.1E: 070 [130]: 080 [150]: 960

+24: 17/0600: 27.3S 165.5E: 100 [185]: 065 [120]: 971

+36: 17/1800: 32.3S 168.6E: 125 [230]: 035 [065]: 990

+48: 18/0600: 38.3S 171.4E: 155 [285]: 035 [065]: 988

+60: 18/1800: 44.9S 176.9E: 190 [350]: 030 [055]: 989

+72: 19/0600: 51.1S 175.2W: 245 [455]: 030 [055]: 986

REMARKS:

Eye pattern with B surround and LG centre, giving DT of 5.0. MT and PT both

suggest 5.0. FT based on DT.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours

while moving in a favourable environment with high sea surface temperatures and

weak wind shear. Zelia has also increased in speed during today with the

development of an upper trough across the western Coral Sea, allowing

northwesterly mid level steering to develop.

Zelia will begin to move over cooler sea surface temperatures south of New

Caledonia on Monday and as a result should begin to weaken during the day.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued by RSMC Nadi.

[paix 0]

Zelia s'affaiblit rapidement, mais menace maintenant Norfolk Island et à plus longue échéance, la Nouvelle Zélande :

IDQ20064

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Top Priority for Immediate Broadcast

NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE

Reissue of

MET SERVICE NZ CYCLONE ADVICE FOR NORFOLK ISLAND BULLETIN NO: 17

ISSUED AT 1255 NFT on 17-Jan-2011

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA WAS CENTRED NEAR 24.9S 165.0E AT 1130 NFT on

17-Jan-2011

This Tropical Cyclone (970hPa, Category 3) lies about 350 kilometres southsouthwest of Noumea, New Caledonia and about 550 kilometres (300 nautical miles) northwest of Norfolk Island.

The Cyclone is currently weakening slowly, but is expected to begin weakening more rapidly this evening.

The Cyclone should pass very near to Norfolk Island (within 20 to 40km) around midnight tonight( Monday), and there is a chance it will pass northeast of the island rather than southwest as previously forecast.

By midday Tuesday the cyclone should lie 400-500km southeast of the island.

FORECAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY

Northeast winds are expected to rise to damaging gale force this evening, with average speed of 40 knots gusting 60 knots.

The winds are then forecast to rise to destructive storm force, average speed 50 knots gusting 80 knots, tonight around 10-11pm Monday NFT.

There is the possibility of a brief period of very destructive hurricane force winds, 65 knots gusting 100 knots, around midnight.

The winds may turn southwest around midnight but are expected to become northwest early Tuesday morning and ease below storm force by about 3-4am Tuesday NFT and to 35 knots gusting 50 knots around 6am NFT.

Winds should have eased below gale force by 8-9am Tuesday NFT.

Seas are expected to become high to very high in the northern quadrant between Monday evening and Tuesday afternoon.

Waves of 6 to 7 metres are likely, and may reach 9 metres for a time early Tuesday morning.

A period of heavy rain is also likely during the passage of the Cyclone, especially during the period of storm force winds, and torrential downpours are possible.

THE NEXT ADVICE FOR NORFOLK ISLAND WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1900 NFT on

17-Jan-2011

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's

website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency

Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min

Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs

Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs

Pour la Nouvelle Calédonie, il n'y a pas de danger d'après MF :

Infos cyclone :

Message émis le : lundi 17/01/2011 à 13H57 locales

Le cyclone "ZELIA" était centré à 11 heures locales par 25,0° Sud et 165,0° Est, soit à environ 350 km dans le sud sud-ouest de Nouméa. Il poursuit son trajet à près de 50 km/h vers le sud-est.

"ZELIA" évolue maintenant en dehors de la zone d’alerte cyclonique de Nouméa et ne constitue plus une menace pour la Nouvelle-Calédonie.

Toutefois de fortes précipitations sont encore attendues pendant les prochaines 24 heures, en particulier sur le Nord, le relief et la façade Est.

Modifié 17 janvier 2011 par paix

[paix 0]

Il est encore l'heure pour avoir des images visibles en plus

[paix 0]

Voici Yasi, qui menace actuellement Queensland. Il pourrait devenir aussi puissant que Wilma quelque jours plus tôt.

IDQ20018

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 0123 UTC 01/02/2011

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Identifier: 14U

Data At: 0000 UTC

Latitude: 14.0S

Longitude: 156.7E

Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]

Movement Towards: west [259 deg]

Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]

Central Pressure: 960 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 200 nm [370 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 200 nm [370 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]

Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]

Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]

Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]

Storm Depth: Deep

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+12: 01/1200: 14.6S 153.0E: 050 [095]: 090 [165]: 950

+24: 02/0000: 15.8S 149.6E: 080 [150]: 100 [185]: 944

+36: 02/1200: 16.7S 146.0E: 110 [205]: 105 [195]: 938

+48: 03/0000: 18.0S 142.7E: 130 [240]: 045 [085]: 987

+60: 03/1200: 19.2S 140.0E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 999

+72: 04/0000: 20.5S 137.4E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1002

REMARKS:

Yasi continues to develop assisted by a environment of low shear, good upper

level outflow and high ocean heat content [sST]. Dvorak based on ongoing

embedded centre in white to give DT 5.0 although adjusted MET and visibile

analysis indicates 4.5. FT/CI maintained at 5.0. Mean winds estimated at 85

knots [top end 5.0] supported by SATCON [95 knots 1min mean] as CIMMS AMSU

estimates are higher than ADT.

Further intensification can be expected with low shear, upper outflow

environment persisting until landfall. SSTs are slightly lower on the forecast

track to about 28C but this may not be a sufficient to inhibit intensification.

Forecast motion is steady to the west with a persisting mid-level ridge to the

south. Models are quite consistent with the forecast motion which may become a

little more WSW in 12-18 hours possibly assisted by some beta affect.

The combined factors of being intense, large, and motion at 18 knots are

conducive for greater wave/swell generation to the south of of the forecast

track.

With the expectation of being a large and intense system, cyclone intensity may

be maintained further inland than normal.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0700 UTC by Brisbane

TCWC.

[paix 0]

Yasi est la plus grave menace cyclonique depuis des décennies pour l'Australie. Il pourrait s'échouer avec une pression centrale d'environ 925 hPa, de plus il est très large et commence déjà à déverser de fortes précipitations sur un terrain déjà saturé. En 2006, le cyclone Larry, plus faible et moins large, avait déjà été considéré comme le cyclone du siècle pour l'Australie :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Larry

Les images satellites sont impressionnantes, et la classification Dvorak tourne actuellement autour de 6.0. L'ADT monte même jusqu'à 7.0 :

UW - CIMSS

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

ADT-Version 8.1.1

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----

Date : 02 FEB 2011 Time : 053200 UTC

Lat : 17:01:04 S Lon : 148:09:05 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

6.9 / 903.4mb/137.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

6.9 6.9 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +8.3C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC

Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : OFF

Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/adt/odt11P.html

Le bulletin technique du BOM :

IDQ20018

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 0107 UTC 02/02/2011

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Identifier: 14U

Data At: 0000 UTC

Latitude: 16.4S

Longitude: 149.9E

Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]

Movement Towards: west southwest [248 deg]

Speed of Movement: 19 knots [35 km/h]

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 115 knots [215 km/h]

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 160 knots [295 km/h]

Central Pressure: 922 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 260 nm [480 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]

Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km]

Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]

Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]

Storm Depth: Deep

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+12: 02/1200: 17.6S 146.5E: 045 [085]: 115 [215]: 922

+24: 03/0000: 18.9S 143.2E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 976

+36: 03/1200: 20.1S 140.3E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 990

+48: 04/0000: 21.2S 137.8E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 999

+60: 04/1200: 22.1S 135.8E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 998

+72: 05/0000: 23.0S 134.6E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 996

REMARKS:

Following a period of rapid intensification overnight to category 5 intensity,

Yasi has possibly steadied in the past 6 hours. Dvorak intensity: Eye pattern

that had been based on W surround [6.0]and OW/W eye [0.5] adjustment has

weakened to an LG surround [5.0] and OW/W [0.5]. Nevertheless time averaged DT

is 6.0 and MET also at 6.0. CI held at 6.5. Max winds estimated at 115 knots

supported by AMSU/SATCON estimates at 125kn [1min], although Willis Island

pressure observations suggest a slightly weaker system.

The intensity is maintained through to landfall, given the environment of low

shear and strong upper level outflow.

Motion remains steady west southwest at 18 knots which should persist through to

landfall.

The combination of being intense, larger than normal [gales extending about

250nm to the south] and the 18 knot motion is enhancing waves/swell and the

storm tide potential. Much depends upon the timing of landfall [high tide is

about 21:00EST] as to the overall tide impact which potentiall is significant.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0700 UTC by Brisbane

TCWC.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20018.txt

Australie: le cyclone Yasi approche du nord-est , qui évacue ses habitants

Australie: le cyclone Yasi approche du nord-est , qui évacue ses habitants

Le cyclone tropical Yasi, dont l'intensité a été relevée à la catégorie 5 maximale, est attendu sur la côte nord-est mercredi à 22H00 heure locale (12H00 GMT), a indiqué le Bureau de la météorologie.

Des milliers d'habitants et touristes de la côte nord-est de l'Australie ont été évacués à l'approche d'un cyclone d'intensité maximale, attendu pour mercredi soir, et qui pourrait provoquer dans cette région la pire tempête depuis des générations.

Le cyclone tropical Yasi, dont l'intensité a été relevée à la catégorie 5 maximale, est attendu sur la côte nord-est mercredi à 22H00 heure locale (12H00 GMT), a indiqué le Bureau de la météorologie.

"Son impact devrait être le pire jamais observé au cours des dernières générations", ont ajouté les services de météorologie.

L'oeil du cyclone Yasi est estimé à 35 km de diamètre et son front à 650 km. Il devrait heurter de plein fouet une zone côtière très peuplée, entre Cairns et Cardwell, deux villes d'environ 130.000 habitants chacune.

Ses vents sont prévus à une vitesse de 280 km/heure et des précipitations violentes pourraient inonder les villes touristiques situées sur cette côte, près de la Grande barrière de corail.

Yasi était mercredi matin au-dessus de la mer de Corail, à 650 km au nord-est de la côte.

Les habitants de la zone de danger ont été priés de quitter au plus vite les lieux.

"Je ne peux pas le dire de manière plus ferme. Il faut que vous saisissiez l'occasion maintenant. N'essayer pas de faire vos bagages, prenez-vous les uns les autres et mettez-vous à l'abri!", a demandé le Premier ministre de l'Etat du Queensland, Anna Bligh.

"Je ne crois pas qu'une zone aussi peuplée ait jamais connu un cyclone d'une telle intensité en Australie", a-t-elle assuré.

Dans les zones les plus vulnérables, des milliers de vacanciers et d'habitants ont quitté les lieux et les patients de deux hôpitaux de Cairns ont été évacués par avion militaire vers des établissements à Brisbane, plus au sud.

L'activité devait être suspendue mercredi dans les aéroports et les ports de Cairns et des villes voisines.

Des queues se sont formées devant les stations-services et aux caisses des supermarchés de Cairns et Townsville, où les gens se ravitaillaient avant la fermeture des boutiques dans la soirée.

Les rues de Cairns, qui grouillent habituellement de touristes venus pour la Grande barrière de corail, étaient désertes. Les sept refuges ouverts pour accueillir les personnes ayant dû quitter leur maison ou leur hôtel étaient pleins.

Le ciel était strié de gros nuages, dans une atmosphère très humide, mais sans vent et avec seulement quelques faibles averses.

La taille et l'intensité de Yasi pourraient largement dépasser celle du cyclone Tracy, qui avait dévasté la ville de Darwin (nord) en 1974, tuant 71 personnes et détruisant 90% des maisons.

Le dernier gros cyclone à avoir touché le nord-est de l'Australie est Larry, de catégorie 4, qui avait en 2006 détruit les récoltes dans une région agricole, aux environs de Innisfail, au sud de Cairns.

Le sud du Queensland, qui a été la région la plus affectée par les inondations de fin 2010 et début 2011, devrait toutefois échapper à Yasi car sa trajectoire a dévié vers le nord.

http://www.lepoint.fr/monde/australie-le-c...1-134477_24.php

Et quelques images de la chose :

Hier, 18h30 UTC :

Aujourd'hui, 04h30 UTC :

Petit tendance à un affaiblissement récemment, mais rien pour rassurer Queensland. J'aurais bien aimé passer une ilmage en micro onde, mais le site du labo de la navy a du mal.

[dascia 0]

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/oce...cle_958097.html

Australie

En attendant Yasi, le cyclone du siècle

Par Jean-Michel Demetz, publié le 02/02/2011 à 13:30

Le Queensland attend un cyclone de la puissance de l'ouragan Katrina, qui a ravagé la Nouvelle Orléans en 2005.

Vingt-quatre heures de terreur" prévient à la Une le quotidien national The Australian. Selon les dernières données du Bureau de la météorologie australien, le cyclone Yasi devrait frapper les côtes du Queensland à minuit, heure locale (soit 14h, heure de Paris).

"Le coeur du cyclone" sera "très destructeur" et sera "accompagné d'une tempête dangereuse plus au sud".

Le Premier ministre du Queensland, Anna Bligh, a déjà prévenu la population de ne pas compter, cette nuit, sur les secours d'urgence. Pompiers et personnel médical seront dans l'incapacité d'intervenir sans mettre leur propre vie en péril. "C'est un événement incomparable à ce que nous avons subi ces récentes années" a -t-elle déclaré.

Le cyclone Yasi va toucher le Queensland avec une puissance similaire à l'ouragan Katrina.

Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of meteorology

Les aéroports et les routes de la région sont déjà fermés. Le réseau électrique a été partiellement coupé.

Dans un message solennel, le Premier ministre australien Julia Gillard a assuré ses compatriotes du nord-Queensland que "dans les heures de destruction" qui allaient s'abattre sur eux, le reste du pays partageait leur angoisse.

Il ne reste plus, désormais, qu'à attendre, prier ou patienter.

Pour l'Australie, cela sera, sans nul doute, une des plus longues nuits de son histoire.

[paix 0]

Yasi s'est échoué à son pic d'intensité, avec une pression centrale de 930 hPa.

Juste avant :

Juste après :

Tully a scene of mass devastation

Evan Schwarten

February 3, 2011 - 4:44AM

AAP

The north Queensland town of Tully is a scene of mass devastation with roofs torn from houses and power poles knocked over.

Cassowary Coast councillor Ross Sorbello said the roof had been torn from his mother's house, where he was waiting out the storm, and local properties had suffered similar damage.

"We are talking about a pretty strong brick house that was built in the 70s, so god help us in the morning when we look at some of the older places," he told AAP.

Advertisement: Story continues below

Mr Sorbello ventured outside briefly during the eye of the storm to assess the damage and said the streets were strewn with debris while power poles had been knocked over.

"It is just a scene of mass devastation," he said.

"(Cyclone) Larry was a boy compared to this."

He said the eye was yet to finishing passing over the town, meaning more damage was on its way as the winds ramped up again.

Cyclone Yasi crossed the coast at Mission Beach, to the east of Tully, with forecasters saying its winds will gust to 290km/h near the eye of the storm.

Tully resident Stephanie Grimaz said houses in her street had been ripped apart.

"The flat from across the street is in our front yard and we can see other houses which have just been destroyed," she told AAP.

"There are sheets of iron everywhere, the streets are just full of debris."

Speaking during the eye of the storm, Ms Grimaz said the winds had been terrifying and she was preparing for more to come.

"We live in a pretty solid concrete house and even that was trembling," she said.

Ms Grimaz said she and her husband were sheltering on the bottom level of her house and had been joined by two other couples who were fleeing less solid homes.

"We don't really know each other but we're all in this together.

Mr Sorbello later detailed some of the damage to his own and other properties, after he was forced to flee his mother's home after the roof went.

"Her house the roof is off, the neighbour's roof is off. My son's in-laws, their both houses, the roofs (are) off," he told the ABC.

"I've had information that there are roofs off in Kennedy (near Cardwell), a house of mine in Feluga (near Mission Beach) the roof is off.

"I would say that Tully is totally devastated."

At Bilyana, south of Tully, several buildings have been damaged, the ABC reported.

"I think all the roof's gone. I could hear it all popping off," one resident, identified only as Rae, told the ABC.

© 2011 AAP

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-natio...0203-1ae1h.html

VIDEOS. Australie : après les inondations, le cyclone Yasi

Publié le 02.02.2011, 15h23 | Mise à jour : 18h11

Le cyclone tropical Yasi.

Depuis 22 heures mercredi (13 heures, heure française), la population de la côte nord-est de l'Australie se terre dans les maisons et les touristes dans leurs hôtels... Des milliers de vacanciers ont déjà été évacués. Le cyclone Yasi, d'intensité maximale 5, pourrait être le pire que l'Australie ait connu depuis des générations.

Les autorités ont demandé aux habitants de ne plus sortir de chez eux. «Le temps de l'évacuation est terminé. Les gens doivent à présent s'abriter là où ils se trouvent», a déclaré le Premier ministre de l'Etat du Queensland, Anna Bligh. On leur a même conseillé de préparer «une pièce sécurisée», avec des matelas, une radio, de la nourriture et de l'eau.

L'oeil du cyclone est estimé à 35 km de diamètre et son front à 650 km. Il doit heurter de plein fouet une zone côtière très peuplée, entre Cairns et Cardwell, deux villes d'environ 130 000 habitants chacune.

Ses vents pourraient atteindre une vitesse de 280 km/h et des précipitations violentes inonder les villes touristiques qui émaillent cette côte, face à la Grande barrière de corail. La mer devrait se déchaîner entre Innisfail et Ayr, avec un pic entre Mission Beach et Lucinda. «Sans aucun doute, nous allons devoir faire face à des ravages et des scènes de désolation sans précédent», a déclaré Anna Bligh alors que des rafales de vent commençaient à dévaster les côtes.

Appel au calme et refuges complets

«Les gens doivent savoir que le toit de leur maison peut se soulever. Mais cela n'affecte pas la structure de la maison, a précisé Ian Stewart, coordinateur en cas de catastrophe dans le Queensland. Ils seront trempés, mais il est bien plus dangereux de paniquer et de sortir en courant de la maison que de rester entre ses murs».

A Cairns, les patients de deux hôpitaux ont été évacués par avion militaire vers Brisbane, plus au sud. L'activité était suspendue dans les aéroports et les ports de la région. Les rues de la ville, qui grouillent habituellement de touristes, étaient désertes. Les sept refuges ouverts pour l'occasion étaient pleins. Plus au sud, à Innisfail, 10 000 habitants, au coeur d'une région agricole spécialisée dans la banane et la cane à sucre, les soldats patrouillaient avec des hauts-parleurs, en ordonnant aux habitants de ne pas sortir.

De gros dégâts en prévision

La taille et l'intensité de Yasi pourraient largement dépasser celle du cyclone Tracy, qui avait dévasté la ville de Darwin (nord) en 1974, tuant 71 personnes et détruisant 90% des maisons. Le dernier gros cyclone à avoir touché le nord-est de l'Australie est Larry, de catégorie 4, qui avait en 2006 détruit les récoltes dans la région d'Innisfail. En 2006, le cyclone Monica, de puissance 5, avait évité les zones les plus peuplées et touché seulement la péninsule du Cap York, à l'extrême nord du Queensland, où 70% des arbres avaient été déracinés.

Plus de 400 000 personnes vivent sur la trajectoire prévue de Yasi, où se trouvent aussi les villes de Cardwell, Townsville, Mackay, ainsi que de nombreuses stations balnéaires. En revanche, le sud du Queensland, qui se remet à peine des inondations destructrices de fin 2010 et début 2011, devrait être épargné par le cyclone, dont la trajectoire a dévié vers le nord.

VIDEO. Des milliers de touristes évacués

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xguyn2_le-nord-est-de-l-australie-sous-l-oeil-du-cyclone-yasi_news#from=embed&start=9

VIDEO. Le parcours du cyclone

LeParisien.fr

http://www.leparisien.fr/international/vid...011-1296963.php

Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi hits Queensland, Australia

Tropical Cyclone Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time this morning as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. Yasi is incredibly strong, its winds falling just 5 mph short of Category 5 status. This makes the storm one of the top-ten strongest cyclones to hit Australia since accurate records began in 1970.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had this to say about Yasi in their advisory last night:

YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN

EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,

ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS.

Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 03:35 UTC February 2, 2011, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite.

On Wednesday morning at 9:30am local time, Yasi hit tiny Willis Island, where a minimum pressure of 938 mb and a peak wind gust of 115 mph was observed before Yasi cut communications and damaged the radar.

Queensland faces three major threats from Yasi. The cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to a region with saturated soils that saw record flooding earlier this month. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA using satellite-based rainfall estimates shows 4 – 6" of rain falling along Yasi's track over the next 24 hours. The GFS model is predicting that a wide swath of Queensland will receive 5 - 10 inches of rain over the next week, due to the combined effects of Yasi and a moist flow of tropical air over the region. Fortunately, Yasi is moving with a rapid forward speed, about 21 mph, and is not expected to linger over Queensland after landfall. The heaviest rainfall will miss Queensland's most populated regions to the south that had the worst flooding problems earlier this month, including the Australia's third largest city, Brisbane.

Yasi brought highly destructive winds to a region of coast between the cities of Cairns (population 150,000) and Townsville (population 200,000). Strong building codes have been in place in Queensland since the 1960s, which will help reduce the damage amounts. The fact that Yasi's eyewall missed these two major cities is lucky, since the coast is less populous between the cities.

A dangerous storm surge in excess of ten feet likely occurred along the left front quadrant of the storm where it came ashore. The tidal was going out when the storm struck, and the inundation from the storm surge will be about 1 meter (3 feet) less than it would have been had the storm hit at high tide.

Yasi is larger and more dangerous than Cyclone Larry of 2006, which hit Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Larry killed one person and caused $872 million in damage (2011 U.S. dollars.) Yasi will bring heavy rains to a region with soils already saturated from record rains, and may become a billion-dollar cyclone.

Figure 4. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Yasi at landfall in Queensland, Australia. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Links to follow:

Live streaming video from Channel 9 in Cairns, AustraliaCategory 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi hits Queensland, Australia

Tropical Cyclone Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time this morning as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. Yasi is incredibly strong, its winds falling just 5 mph short of Category 5 status. This makes the storm one of the top-ten strongest cyclones to hit Australia since accurate records began in 1970.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had this to say about Yasi in their advisory last night:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Modifié 2 février 2011 par paix

[paix 0]

Yasi a débarqué :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUSOjCpqJmA...feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnNhH-XrYzQ...feature=related

Sinon, j'étais là pour l'oeil de Yasi, qui s'affaiblit mais reste bien présent :

Heureusement, l'intensité pluvieuse est restée faible (pour un cyclone tropical s'entend...) et Yasi a progressé rapidement, réduisant le risque d'inondations éclairs.

Modifié 2 février 2011 par paix

[paix 0]

Tully residents reveal horror of cyclone's wrath

Dan Nancarrow

February 3, 2011 - 8:02AM

http://media.smh.com.au/national/national-...si-2164638.html

'Baby' Larry didn't compare to Yasi

Reports of vast structural damage to housing as dawn breaks in Tully, where residents bore the brunt of Cyclone Yasi.

Video feedbackVideo settingsMore video

As Cyclone Yasi tore through the small north Queensland town of Tully, Pat Brauer and her husband huddled together in their bathroom, petrified at the storm’s menacing roar.

‘‘The noise it was like a train coming, it was absolutely frightening,’’ she said.

‘‘It was just unbelievable when the windows popped.

Advertisement: Story continues below

Google map shows the area expected to be hardest hit by Cyclone Yasi as it crossed the coast last night.

‘‘Larry and all the other cyclones, they were nothing compared to this.’’

Tully has been decimated by last night's cyclone, with a local councillor estimating up to half the town's homes have lost their roofs.

Cassowary Coast councillor Ross Sorbello said the worst of Yasi had now passed, revealing a trail of destruction.

Yasi hits north Queensland

http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/environ...selectedImage=2

A palm tree ripped out of the ground at Home Hill, south of Townsville, on February 3. Photo: Marissa Calligeros

He said he'd heard many reports of homes without roofs, including his own mother's where he'd been taking shelter, forcing he and his wife and mum to flee.

"We are talking about a pretty strong brick house that was built in the 70s, so God help us in the morning when we look at some of the older places," he said.

From 11.30pm until 1am Mrs Brauer suffered what she said were the most terrifying moments of her life as winds battered her house, blowing out windows and glass doors while rain brought in water five centimetres deep.

Although the frame and roof of the house survived the storm, much of the property inside the house has been destroyed.

Surveying the damage this morning Mrs Brauer burst into tears.

‘‘You should just see it mate, there’s nothing left, it’s just devastating,’’ she said.

‘‘I wish I could take a photo for you, you wouldn’t believe it.’’

On her street her neighbour’s cane field has been stripped by the storm and a garden shed has been blown away.

Bulgun Road, on the outskirts of Tully, now seems totally unrecognisable to her.

‘‘Big trees have just been ripped out of the ground and they’ve just disappeared,’’ she said.

She and her husband have not been able to make it into the centre of Tully to see how the cyclone affected the town.

But they are pleased their children were able to find safety - her son in a underground room in Tully and their Innisfail daughter in Townsville.

The couple retained mobile coverage throughout the storm and were kept up to date by Mrs Bauer's sister-in-law in Brisbane who provided weather updates.

‘‘That was the best thing: having the mobile phone and her talking to us,’’ she said.

Cr Sorbello said the devastation was widespread.

“If you look around there are houses everywhere you can see with part of their roof off or all of their roof off,” he told the Nine Network this morning.

“If you look at the trees, all there are are sticks. The leaves are gone.”

He said that even in the dark, a very brief look outside as the eye passed over, told him the devastation would be vast.

"It is just a scene of mass devastation," he said. "(Cyclone) Larry was a boy compared to this."

He said people were calling him to recount their losses.

"People are calling up telling me they've got roofs off, one farmer said he had a great big shed blow away," he said.

Another resident, Stephanie Grimaz said houses in her street had been ripped apart.

"The flat from across the street is in our front yard and we can see other houses which have just been destroyed," she told AAP.

"There are sheets of iron everywhere, the streets are just full of debris."

Speaking during the eye of the storm, Ms Grimaz said the winds had been terrifying.

"We live in a pretty solid concrete house and even that was trembling," she said.

At Bilyana, south of Tully, several buildings have been damaged, the ABC reported.

"I think all the roof's gone. I could hear it all popping off," one resident, identified only as Rae, told the ABC.

- with AAP

J'oublie mes réf's à chaque fois... Donc ce pavé ne vient pas de moi mais de : http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/...0203-1ae48.html

Et là, j'hésite entre : déchéance d'un géant et : la poussière retourne à la poussière et la vapeur d'eau retourne à la vapeur d'eau.

Modifié 2 février 2011 par paix

[paix 0]

Allez, pour une fois ce ne sera pas un gros pavé en anglais :

BULLETIN DU 10 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE

MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.

*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BINGIZA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 991 HPA.

POSITION LE 10 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 13.8 SUD / 54.2 EST

(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 795 KM AU NORD

DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.6S/54.8E

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.9S/55.2E

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.5S/54.3E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE

PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE

COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA

POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON

EXTENSION.

-----------------------------------------------------

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN VERS 22H30 LOCALES

Et une petite image :

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Bingiza menace Madagascar. Il s'est un affaibli ces derniers temps avec un cycle de remplacement du mur de l'œil. Les dernières images montrent un œil obscurci, tandis que le mur interne est difficilement discernable en micro onde (mais est bien là ...), et que se développe le mur externe.

Quelques heures plus tôt, alors que Bingizia était proche de son intensité maximale :

BULLETIN DU 13 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE

MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.

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NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BINGIZA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 953 HPA.

POSITION LE 13 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 15.8 SUD / 52.0 EST

(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 670 KM AU NORD-OUEST

DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. SUR TERRE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.3S/47.9E

DEPR. SUR TERRE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 17.6S/44.5E

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.2S/42.6E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE

PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE

COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA

POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON

EXTENSION.

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L'une des plus belle image de cycle de remplacement du mur. On admire, parce que là ce doit être une des plus belle image de la sorte qu'il m'aie été donné de voir. L'ancien œil et le nouvel œil cohabite dans cette vaste arène :