Saison 2010 : Ouragans, cyclones, typhons, tempêtes et dépressions

[paix 0]

Monté à 70% On est dans la saison capeverdienne là

Foto de famille : Danielle devant, et le possible Earl derrière

Le NHC a abandonné l'idée que Frank puisse devenir un ouragan :

000

WTPZ44 KNHC 240238

TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010

800 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010

AFTER APPEARING RATHER RAGGED EARLIER TODAY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS

REDEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF FRANK DURING THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT

MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL

DIAGNOSES ABOUT 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER FRANK. THE SHEAR

IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE...BUT REMAIN AROUND 15

KT UNTIL THE CYCLONE APPROACHES COOLER WATER IN 3-4 DAYS. SINCE THE

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN

ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36

HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO A GFDL/SHIPS/LGEM CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

FRANK HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/8 KT. THE TRACK

FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE

OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A

GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP FRANK ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN

AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST

IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.

SINCE FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER IN SIZE

AND THERE IS NOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE

CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF

SOUTHERN MEXICO HAVE DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF

MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A TROPICAL

STORM WATCH.

ONSHORE MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WELL TO THE EAST OF FRANK IS

PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

MEXICO. THESE RAINS...WHILE NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO

FRANK...COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.2N 100.1W 45 KT

12HR VT 24/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W 50 KT

24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.2N 102.8W 50 KT

36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.9N 104.5W 55 KT

48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 106.2W 55 KT

72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.8N 109.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.5W 55 KT

120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W 45 KT

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

C'est déjà un petit événement vu les conditions d'avoir su récupérer une tempête tropicale au vu des conditions, et il ne faudrait pas trop en demander à Franck

[paix 0]

Les choses sont en train d'évoluer rapidement dans l'Atlantique. Les paramètres deviennent très favorable à la cyclogénèse :

Alors que les modèles s'agitent, et développent des cyclones tropicaux. Certains, comme GFS, développent déjà des cyclones qui pourrait être Fionna, Gaston, Hermine, ....

Je pense que la situation est même propice à approché un précédent du 26 septembre 1998 et du 11 septembre 1961, c'est à dire avoir 4 ouragans sur la table. On a déjà Danielle, qui ne devrait pas redevenir tempête tropicale avant un bout de temps, Earl qui ne semble plus si loin, et il en manque donc encore deux. Cela reste assez peu probable tout de même actuellement, mais en tous cas, l'Atlantique semble prêt à nous faire un beau run dans les semaines à venir.

[paix 0]

Arf, Danielle vient de prendre un coup. Le NHC l'a poussé à 85 nœuds, j'avais déjà quelques réticences à la voir en catégorie 2, mais maintenant la situation continue de se dégrader.

Il semblerait que de l'air plus sec tente de pénétrer le coeur de Danielle :

Le résultat en visible n'est pas joli, avec peut être bien un début d'exposition du centre de bas niveau

[ElNino27 0]

Eh ben déjà cat2 ! Et 90% pour 96L ... Let's rock and roll !

[paix 0]

Malheureusement oui

[jeannico. 0]

(GFS)

Cette basse pression en bas à gauche, c'est le cyclone Danielle? En tous les cas, ça à l'air bien costaud ce truc-là!

[paix 0]

Oui, c'est Danielle. D'un autre point de vue, un peu près à la même échéance (j'ai pris h+144), on voit bien Danielle, le futur possible Erin, et la dépression atlantique qui vient buter contre l'anticyclonique européen. Vu l'évolution récente de Danielle, et les modèles numériques, je doute quand même qu'on puisse dire qu'elle est costaude

Le NHC l'a redescend à 70 nœuds, mais fait remarquer que cela est peut être généreux. Maintenant qu'on a un bout un peu plus long du film, je pense quand même que l'upgrade en catégorie 2 est justifié, mais sans doute un peu plus tôt dans la nuit. Je pense que la cat 2 était déjà passé quand le NHC l'a monté en cat 2. Mais le NHC n''avait pas le film en entier à ce moment là, donc forcément... Et maintenant, comme ils l'avaient à 85 noeuds il y a encore 6 heures, ils maintiennent un peu de continuité en ne la redescendant pas tout de suite en tempête tropicale. Pour moi, je pense cependant que Danielle est maintenant à cheval entre l'ouragan et la tempête tropicale, à 60 ou 65 noeuds.

000

WTNT41 KNHC 241442

TCDAT1

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010

1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED WITH A THUD. THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME EXPOSED BETWEEN A RAGGED

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO ITS EAST...AND A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND

TO ITS WEST. ALL ALONG...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 0300 UTC

SHOWED A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF

THE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE EYEWALL BECAME ERODED. DATA

T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY AND ARE NOW AS LOW AS T3.9 FROM THE

HURRICANE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AN EXPERIMENTAL FORM OF THE UW-CIMSS

ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT AT THIS TIME...

WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY TO

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT OVER THE

NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WELL DANIELLE WILL BE

ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DRY AIR. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED

IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS

HELD JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TO MAINTAIN SOME SORT OF

CONTINUITY...BUT THIS IS NOW ABOVE MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.

MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WITH

AND A AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17. THIS MOTION IS A

LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LITTLE CHANGE IS

REQUIRED IN THE FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION

BUT THEN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER FORECASTS FOR DAYS 3

THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS TVCN AND STILL A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND

HWRF...WHICH SEAMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED LEFT-OF-TRACK

MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.6N 46.5W 70 KT

12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 48.3W 75 KT

24HR VT 25/1200Z 19.1N 50.4W 80 KT

36HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 52.3W 85 KT

48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.8N 53.8W 90 KT

72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 56.5W 90 KT

96HR VT 28/1200Z 28.5N 58.5W 95 KT

120HR VT 29/1200Z 32.0N 59.5W 95 KT

$$

FORECASTER BERG

Modifié 24 août 2010 par paix

[ElNino27 0]

Encore une preuve que cette année, les cyclones ont décidé d'em***** le monde. "Unexpectadly", dit le NHC. La première phrase résume tout. Je trouverais intéressant que Danielle arrive en Europe : avec une température de fin d'été, ca pourrait donner un sacré coup de bambou.

[paix 0]

Tiens, si vous aimez les cyclones qui jouent avec les nerfs des pauvres humains qui les observent, Franck est aussi un spécimen de qualité. Y a pas 12 heures, le centre était exposé, Franck était à l'agonie. Y a pas 6 heures, magnifique CDO, le NHC croit à nouveau à l'ouragan. Et maintenant, le CDO se tasse. Avant une nouvelle exposition du centre de bas niveau ?

[ElNino27 0]

Et Danielle est passée en TS. Le NHC dit ne pas savoir pourquoi. Dingue hein ?

Et en plus, sa trajectoire se rapproche des Bermudes.

Prêts pour s'ouvrir les veines ?

[paix 0]

Vous ne croyez pas que c'est un peu exagéré ?

Et Franck, je me demande de plus en plus si ce n'est pas un début d'exposition qu'il nous fait, comme Danielle il y a quelques heures. Là, je doute plus que pour Danielle tout à l'heure quand même, mais j'ai des gros doutes sur la santé de Franck. On est loin du beau CDO je trouve.

[paix 0]

On se fait une séance de psychanalyse collective ?

Que vous évoque la forme jaune rouge au centre ?

Un dauphin sanguinaire ? Une main de fer dans un gant de velours ? L'échec d'une existence ? Autre ?

Sinon, c'est une image en micro onde de Danielle, et si la circulation reste solide, l'œil s'est fait la malle Dieu seul sait où.

[ElNino27 0]

Ah ben sans oeil bien défini, pas d'intensification possible.

Et puis votre séance de psychanalyse est douteuse ...

[paix 0]

Le NHC nous sort une proba de "near 100%" pour 96L

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE

DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD

ISLANDS.

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING

WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW

MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON

THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR

100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO

TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS

AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY

UNFAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED

TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN

Le dernier passage ASCAT confirme qu'il y a un centre, mais il n'est pas tout à fait fermé. L'ancien axe de l'onde n'a pas été suturé. Mais au vu de la tendance actuelle et du "near 100%", je pense que le LLC sera pour bientôt.

[ElNino27 0]

Danielle est redevenue ouragan et les avis pour TD7 seront bientôt démarrés ...

[paix 0]

Ouaip, ils ne manquent plus que le NHC maintenant. Les guidance pour la TD7 sont déjà sorti

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072010) 20100825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100825 1200 100826 0000 100826 1200 100827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.2N 30.3W 14.8N 33.8W 15.2N 37.0W 15.7N 40.1W

BAMD 14.2N 30.3W 15.0N 32.7W 16.0N 35.3W 17.1N 37.8W

BAMM 14.2N 30.3W 15.0N 33.3W 15.8N 36.5W 16.6N 39.5W

LBAR 14.2N 30.3W 14.7N 33.6W 15.4N 37.2W 16.3N 40.8W

SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS

DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100827 1200 100828 1200 100829 1200 100830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 43.1W 17.1N 48.7W 19.1N 54.8W 21.9N 59.5W

BAMD 18.1N 40.6W 19.4N 45.9W 20.5N 51.0W 22.5N 56.4W

BAMM 17.2N 42.6W 18.0N 48.9W 19.2N 54.6W 20.7N 58.3W

LBAR 17.0N 44.2W 17.8N 50.2W 17.7N 54.0W 19.7N 57.4W

SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 85KTS

DSHP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 25.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 23.5W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 250809

CHGHUR

et le Best Track l'a aussi passé en TD7

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_al072010.invest

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201008251231

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

SEVEN, AL, L, , , , , 07, 2010, TD, O, 2010082312, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL072010

AL, 07, 2010082212, , BEST, 0, 108N, 133W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 07, 2010082218, , BEST, 0, 109N, 141W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 07, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 110N, 149W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 07, 2010082306, , BEST, 0, 111N, 157W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 07, 2010082312, , BEST, 0, 112N, 165W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

AL, 07, 2010082318, , BEST, 0, 114N, 173W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 07, 2010082400, , BEST, 0, 121N, 191W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 125, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 07, 2010082406, , BEST, 0, 130N, 210W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 125, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 07, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 131N, 235W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 125, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 07, 2010082418, , BEST, 0, 136N, 242W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 125, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 07, 2010082500, , BEST, 0, 140N, 258W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

AL, 07, 2010082506, , BEST, 0, 141N, 281W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 07, 2010082512, , BEST, 0, 142N, 303W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,

[paix 0]

000

WTNT42 KNHC 251444

TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY NUMBER

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF

AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL

DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH

WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN

ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF

2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND

VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY

BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM

WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR

AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE

FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON

THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE

DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS

TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE

CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A

WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE

CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A

PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN

MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY

FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT

12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT

36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT

72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT

120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[paix 0]

Comme le disait ElNino27, pas d'oeil, pas de creusement.

000

WTNT41 KNHC 251441

TCDAT1

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010

1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

DANIELLE HAS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH

CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT

THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER WITH NO

EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH

A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE CAUSING 15-20 KT OF

WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS HAS LIKELY AFFECTED THE

CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT

FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE

CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED

ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15. DANIELLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST

SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH

SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH

SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. AFTER

THAT...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS

BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE

EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD DURING

THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW DANIELLE MAY INTERACT WITH A

WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING

MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE MOST

RIDGING...AND IN RESPONSE TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD. THE

ECWMF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH AND LESS RIDGING...AND IN CONSEQUENCE

TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR. THE OTHER MODELS ARE

IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS

FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE

MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST.

DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN

THE SHEAR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-72

HR PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECASTING DANIELLE TO BECOME A

MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...

AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR A 95 KT PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS

CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL

MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE

SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY

FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED

BY WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.6N 52.3W 75 KT

12HR VT 26/0000Z 20.8N 53.9W 75 KT

24HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 55.7W 80 KT

36HR VT 27/0000Z 23.7N 57.4W 80 KT

48HR VT 27/1200Z 24.9N 59.0W 85 KT

72HR VT 28/1200Z 27.5N 61.5W 95 KT

96HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 62.0W 95 KT

120HR VT 30/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W 85 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[ElNino27 0]

Ah ben voilà j'ai enfin compris qqch dans les ouragans

En tout cas, le NHC a stoppé la progression de Danielle vers l'Ouest dans les modèles, et donc les Bermudes devraient échapper au gros morceau. Parce qu'un cat2, c'est quand même pas rien.

Quant à TD7, futur Earl, il pourrait aussi jouer avec nos nerfs, mais plus sur la trajectoire.

[paix 0]

Et bien, le futur Earl n'est plus si futur

WTNT42 KNHC 252029

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010

500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS

FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS

CONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED

BANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB

AND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING

THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE

GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF

RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR

COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL

STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A

HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING

FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL

LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3

TO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN

EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST

POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON

TOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS

BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS

IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A

LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO

THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE

NEXT MODEL CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.4N 32.2W 35 KT

12HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 34.6W 40 KT

24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 38.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.5N 41.0W 55 KT

48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 65 KT

72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 75 KT

96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 55.0W 80 KT

120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 60.0W 80 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Bonne nuit !

Modifié 25 août 2010 par paix

[paix 0]

Ce n'est pas forcément efficace, mais c'est esthétique. On pourra noter trois poussées convectives près du centre qui pourrait bien être hot towers, ce qui indiquerait un renforcement de Danielle. mais l'air sec et le cisaillement ne sont loin.

[paix 0]

On peut aussi commencer à parler de Fiona (avec Earl qui est un titre de noblesse, on est pas très loin de Princesse Fiona cela n'a rien à voir mais je pourrais aussi rajouter que Danielle veut dire Jugement de Dieu. ).

Bref, Fiona :

Et ce n'est pas du délire h+372 248 711 de GFS, puisque l'onde existe déjà :

( Earl devant, l'onde au dessus de l'Afrique encore. )

Qu'il n'est pas seul (c'est le NGP ça ):

Que les conditions sont toujours favorables (voir l'exemple d'Earl, de Danielle, en rajoutant toutes les images que j'ai déjà postée précédemment )

Qu'en plus, il l'a développé dans les environs de h+72 (dans trois jours quoi. À cette échéance, c'est seulement du moyen terme )

Que jusqu'à présent, il a était robuste pour Danielle et Earl.

Bref, comme dirait Jeff Masters

I can't see any reason why this would not occur.

Et ce n'est pas de la phrase hors contexte (pour les méfiants )

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...l?entrynum=1587

Modifié 25 août 2010 par paix

[ElNino27 0]

Ouaip, et Danielle évitera les States, Earl peut-être aussi, mais Fiona cela métonnerait parce qu'elle serait encore un cran en-dessous. La danse aurait-elle commencé ?

[paix 0]

La future possible Fiona semble solide :

Le NHC ne l' pas encore passé, en invest, mais cela ne saurait tarder. La convergence et la vorticité viennent de rejoindre l'océan, et la convection se maintien. Un début de courbure cyclonique et même visible.

On n'est plus si loin de 98 et de sa parade d'ouragan

Ou de 95 et de sa parade

[paix 0]

Le NHC maintient Franck en ouragan depuis quelque temps. Le sommet des nuages est certes froid, mais de là à trouver un centre. Hier et aujourd'hui l'image en micro onde montrait quand même un oeil. Mais depuis, j'ai franchement des doutes. on tend plus vers un cold cover des plus anarchique je trouve